Sunday 1 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft:

The first in a four day series counting down the draft classes of the 2011 NFL Draft. Of course, a true assessment cannot be made for a long time yet, but this is an initial judgement of how each team has done, starting with the worst and finishing with the best class on the 2011 NFL Draft. So, the bottom eight teams, beginning with....

32) San Diego Chargers:

Picks: Corey Liuget (DE, 18), Marcus GIlchrist (DB, 50), Jonas Mouton (OLB, 61), Vincent Brown (WR, 82), Shareece Wright (CB, 89), Jordan Todman (RB, 183), Steve Schilling (OL, 201), Andrew Gachkar (OLB, 234).


Summary: Liuget seems a better fit as a three technique than a five, but can play either role, and should upgrade the Chargers’ defensive line. However, with Cameron Jordan on the board, the Chargers made the wrong pick in my opinion. Gilchrist is a versatile player, although a little overdrafted, and should see action as a third corner and on special teams. Mouton is certainly overdrafted, but he will play special teams as he develops into a potential starter in time. Brown is possibly the best pick for San Diego, and he could see action in the slot in his rookie year. Wright’s stock was harmed by an injury in 2010, so is a bit of a gamble, but he has talent and could be a steal in the third round. Todman is a replacement for Darren Sproules, while Schilling is a versatile backup.


Verdict: A poor looking draft for San Diego, who arguably missed on every pick. They add some talent to their defense, but not on the scale that was hoped, and did not get an impact player other than Liuget. Some long-term potential, but very little to get excited about in a draft which could have moved San Diego forward significantly. One of the worst classes in the league.


31) Carolina Panthers:

Picks: Cam Newton (QB, 1), Terrell McClain (DT, 65), Sione Fua (DT, 97), Brandon Hogan (CB, 98), Kaloha Pilares (WR, 132), Lawrence Wilson (LB, 166), Zachary Williams (OL, 203), Lee Ziemba (OL, 244).


Summary: Newton is a developmental player with huge talent levels, but he needs too much work to be seen as the correct pick at one overall. He could become a star, but it will take him three years plus to develop into one, and will start long before then. McClain and Fua add to the defensive tackle rotation, which was poor in 2010, and could both become starters by the end of 2011, although that is more to do with a lack of strength at the position than their talent. Hogan can be another corner competing to be the nickel corner, which is about the talent level of every corner on the roster, and the rest of the class is little to get excited about, although Pilares and Wilson will be expected to help on special teams.


Verdict: A poor class from the team with the best chance for a good one. Newton is too risky to take there, and the lack of a second rounder really hurt this class. Both defensive tackles could end up contributing to a large degree, but neither is the stud the Panthers would have liked, and they will be lucky for the rest of the class to see the field. Some long-term potential, but nothing to be excited about for 2011.


30) Oakland Raiders:


Picks: Stefen Wisniewski (OL, 48), Demarcus Van Dyke (CB, 81), Joseph Barksdale (OT, 92), Chimdi Chekwa (CB, 113), Taiwan Jones (RB, 125), Denarius Moore (WR, 148), Richard Gordon (TE, 181), David Ausberry (WR, 241).


Summary: Wisniewski is an excellent pick, who will be a ten year starter from day one at either guard or centre. A good value pick too at forty-eight overall. Van Dyke has prodigious speed but will have to do more than run in a straight line to be a success in the NFL. He and Chekwa are the attempts to replace the soon to depart Nnamdi Asomugha, and Chekwa is probably the better pick, although neither figure to even come close to what the Raiders once had. Barksdale is potentially a great pick as he could develop into a very good left tackle, but need time. Jones is, of course, a speedster, but his tape is small-school tape, and his true talent is therefore difficult to evaluate. He was not really overdrafted, but probably will not develop into what the Raiders would like. Moore is, of course, a fast receiver, and another with a lot of potential but who needs a lot of time, as every Raiders receiver seems to be. Gordon caught ten balls in college, but surprise surprise he ran a 4.6 forty time.


Verdict: A good first pick and a lot of potential, this class is very hit or miss. I lean more towards the miss side, and there are not enough safe bets for a team like the Raiders who need players who can start now. Overall this could be seen as a great class in three years time, but every Raiders class is like that and they never work out. Poor drafting.


29) Atlanta Falcons:


Picks: Julio Jones (WR, 6), Akeem Dent (LB, 91), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, 145), Matt Bosher (K, 192), Andrew Jackson (OL, 210), Cliff Matthews (DT, 230).


Summary: Jones has star quality, and has been brought in to push the Falcons over the edge. He can play opposite Roddy White from day one and will benefit from a top tier quarterback and a lack of double coverage, meaning he may have more of an impact than rookie receivers tend to. The trade deal was steep, but if Jones helps them win a Super Bowl in the next two years, no-one will question the decision. Dent is a solid pick who will help out on special teams, and will add to what is already an above average linebacking corps. Rodgers is a small, shifty, hard to bring down back, but his size (standing at just 5’6”) is always going to limit him in the NFL, and will leave him susceptible to injuries. Bosher can kick and punt, but it’s difficult to see why the Falcons drafted him in the sixth round, and Matthews provides good value with their final pick.


Verdict: The trade-up for Jones really limited what the Falcons could bring in with this class, having given up their first, second and fourth for him. It was bold and could work out well, but it means they will only add one immediate starter in this draft, and that is at receiver, where rookies do not always show their real talent for two or three years.


28) St. Louis Rams:


Picks: Robert Quinn (DE, 14), Lance Kendricks (TE, 47), Austin Pettis (WR, 78), Greg Salas (WR, 112), Jermale Hines (DB, 159), Mikail Baker (DB, 216), Jabara Williams (OLB, 228), Jonathan Nelson (DB, 229).


Summary: Quinn is a talented prospect with some question marks to overcome, but playing opposite a talent like Chris Long should be beneficial to his development. It could mean he has a large impact in his rookie year as Long takes away double teams. Kendricks is a talented H-back, but how he fits into a Josh McDaniels offense is difficult to see. If McDaniels can use him well, he could be a useful weapon for Sam Bradford to add. Austin Pettis and Greg Salas are not the type of receiver that Rams’ fans were hoping for- both more like slot receivers with their good route-running skills and excellent hands than the field-stretcher many were hoping for. Hines has talent, but needs to develop, which will take time, and the final three picks are only going to be an impact on special teams, if they stick on the roster.


Verdict: A disappointing class for the Rams, as they pick up a tight end which is not really needed and two receivers who are similar to what they already have. Quinn should work out well, but there was a bigger need on the inside, and there is not a huge deal of developmental talent. A low end class which could drop even further if Hines does not work out.


27) Miami Dolphins:


Picks: Mike Pouncey (OL, 15), Daniel Thomas (RB, 62), Edmond Gates (WR, 111), Charles Clay (TE, 174), Frank Kearse (DT, 231), Jimmy Wilson (DB, 235).


Summary: Pouncey was rather overdrafted, but will plug straight in and start for a long time. He projects better to guard than centre, meaning Ritchie Incognito is likely to move to centre, leaving Pouncey at guard alongside John Jerry. Thomas is a risky pick in the second round with his injury issues, but he is a back who could carry the load in Miami, especially behind such a strong offensive line. Gates is the speedy receiver the Dolphins need, but needs some work before he can have the impact he could have in his second or third year. Clay is versatile, and could line up in the backfield or at tight end, but will not have a huge impact. Kearse and Wilson will fight to stay on the roster.


Verdict: A small class which is underwhelming, Pouncey is the star but is never going to live up to expectation, and Thomas could be hurt more often than not. There should be some immediate impact and Gates gives a developmental prospect, but this class could look a lot better.


26) San Francisco 49ers:


Picks: Aldon Smith (OLB, 7), Colin Kaepernick (QB, 36), Chris Culliver (CB, 80), Kendall Hunter (RB, 115), Daniel Kilgore (OG, 163), Ronald Johnson (WR, 182), Colin Jones (DB, 190), Bruce Miller (DE, 211), Michael Person (OL, 239), Curtis Holcomb (DB, 250).


Summary: Smith is a raw, talented pass rusher who had some injury problems in 2010. He may not contribute massively in his rookie year, but he should how flashes, and has the potential to become a stud edge rusher for the 49ers. However, he was a little overdrafted at seven overall. Kaepernick has talent to work with, but is very raw, and the 9ers will need him to sit and develop for longer than he likely will. The value is poor, but there is potential there. Culliver has good measurables, but also needs to develop and is another long-term player. Hunter could usurp Anthony Dixon as the backup very early, and has good potential. Kilgore is versatile and can play a number of positions on the offensive line, so will stick as a backup. Johnson is an interesting prospect, again as a developmental player, but could become something, while Miller and Person could stick as back-ups.


Verdict: This class is very much a look to the long-term future, and only really addresses one need for 2011. Even then, Smith is unlikely to show his full talent this year. If all goes well, this class will be better than average, but rarely does all go well, and it could turn out that the 49ers only hit on one or two picks. A disappointing class for a team that needs some upgrades to win in 2011.


25) Jacksonville Jaguars:


Picks: Blaine Gabbert (QB, 10), Williams Rackley (OG, 76), Cecil Shorts (WR, 114), Chris Prosinski (S, 121), Rod Isaac (DB, 147).


Summary: The trade-up for Gabbert has grown on me as time has gone on. The Jaguars needed a quarterback for the future, and getting Gabbert at ten is decent value, although their needs were greater in other areas. Rackley projects well to guard, but needs developing, which can be done behind a decent pair of guards in Jacksonville. Shorts is another small-school player (as are Rackley, Issac and Prosinski) with good potential, but with small school players come high risk. Prosinski looks to be a solid backup, but he will have the most impact on special teams, as should Isaac.


Verdict: The Gabbert trade made it difficult for the Jaguars to address the secondary and pass rush needs, but they have picked up some intriguing developmental prospects, mostly small school players with the attached risk. Potentially a top quality class, but the lack of immediate impact players makes it barely above average.

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