Final 2011 NFL Mock Draft

1, Carolina Panthers- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

All the talk is that the Panthers want Cam Newton. Adam Shefter tweeted out earlier today that Panthers’ owner Jerry Richardson was a big fan, and when something like that becomes public knowledge you expect to see some action on it. Newton racked up fifty touchdowns in the SEC last year, hugely impressive numbers, especially for a player coming in to start for his first year in the BCS, but he is far from the finished product. He is a proven winner, and has a lot of ability to mould, but will take time, and Panthers’ fans should not expect to see results for at least two years. A pick too risky for my liking, as the degree of development required is massive, but it may pay off somewhere down the line.

2, Denver Broncos- Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama

Dareus seems to be the consensus best defensive tackle in this draft. He had a big effect on games playing defensive end in an odd front at Alabama, and most scouts are not worried about the transition to playing the interior line in an even front. He may not have put up the numbers of a Nick Fairley, but he was more consistent on tape and does not have the character concerns. He should be a solid player, especially against the run, but not the impact player required here. Another often discussed pick is Von Miller here, but for a team who’s base defense will be a 4-3, taking a player who will spend most of his time as a 4-3 outside linebacker at two overall would be madness, no matter how talented.

3, Buffalo Bills- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Miller does however come off the board here. His talent levels are sky high, and with the right coaching he could become as dominant off the edge as a DeMarcus Ware or a Clay Matthews. Like Ware, Miller is more pass rusher than run defender, and must be used in the right way in his first year especially as he learns to seal the edge and deal with backs running at him, but he could come in and post double digit sacks immediately, something which the Bills desperately need. This is a safe pick, a pick which meets a need, and ultimately will prove to be the right pick for Buffalo.

4, Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green, WR, Georgia

The Bengals organisation rarely make any attempt to hide their intentions for the draft. Last year Jermaine Gresham was the consensus mock pick, and he was selected, in 2009 the Bengals were clearly going after a tackle, and Andre Smith was the pick. This year the position is wide receiver, and AJ Green is the pick. Some say Julio Jones is a little better suited for the Bengals’ scheme, but no offensive co-ordinator worth his salt in the NFL will be unable to fit a receiver as talented as Green into his scheme. This pick is not the best for the Bengals needs, but a player of this talent will always be welcomed wherever he plays.

5, Arizona Cardinals- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

The Cardinals have the choice of a quarterback or Peterson here. Gabbert would add yet more inexperience to the stable of Hall and Skelton, which the Cardinals will not be looking for, and a veteran with Skelton to develop is the way to go. Peterson, as the best player in the draft for a number of scouts, is good value at five, and will help the Cardinals out a great deal. Playing alongside Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie will help Peterson to bed into the NFL too, as he will not immediately be stuck on number one receivers every week. Not the biggest needs-based pick, but a pick which makes sense.

6, Cleveland Browns- Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

With Peterson and Green both off the board, the Browns have a tough decision to make. They could reach for Julio Jones, but it certainly would be a reach, and Mike Holmgren has said he is happy with his receiving core, and can add to it later. Quinn adds to the area of biggest need- pass rush. He may be a risky pick, especially as high as this, but he does have talent, and could emerge as an elite defensive end for a franchise that desperately needs one to build around.

7, San Francisco 49ers- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

The 49ers wanted the cornerback here, but with Gabbert falling coach Jim Harbaugh cannot resist the temptation to bring in his own quarterback to develop, rather than having to rely on Alex Smith. Harbaugh was able to develop Andrew Luck very well at Stanford, so has a track record with quarterbacks, and Gabbert is similar in regards to being an intelligent person and having a good release. He has worked hard in the months leading up to the draft, and could be ready to start by the middle of his rookie year. He has a lot to learn and it will take time, but he could become an above average quarterback in the NFL and have a long, solid career.

8, Tennessee Titans- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

With Tracy Rocker having left Auburn to take the job as the defensive line coach for the Tennessee Titans, no team will know as much about Nick Fairley than this one. Therefore, he will know that Fairley can be a game changer in the middle of a defensive line, and can have an impact similar to (but to as much as) last year’s number two overall pick Ndomukong Suh. If he has character problems, Rocker knows how to deal with them, and has shown he can get the best of Fairley. This pick should be a lock.

9, Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith, OT, USC

This pick makes a lot of sense. The Cowboys need a right tackle, and Smith played right tackle at USC. The Cowboys need to look to the future at left tackle if Doug Free either a) keeps developing and asks for a lot of money or b) doesn’t develop as much as they would like. Smith is a developmental left tackle who can contribute on the right side of the line from day one. He may not present ideal value at this position in the draft, but he is the best pick for Dallas, who may look to trade down to get greater value.

10, Washington Redskins- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

The Redskins have a toss up between Jones and Locker, but are confident of being able to use Rex Grossman for a year and pick up a quarterback in the second, maybe with a trade deal. Jones gives them a talented, hard working receiver to put opposite Santana Moss, which will help Grossman or whichever quarterback ends up starting (possibly even Donovan McNabb). They need to begin work on a front seven, but, as usual, they make the wrong pick.

11, Houston Texans- Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

This pick is being heavily rumored, as the Texans need a pass rusher, and Wade Phillips will look to have a DeMarucus Ware-type player as he did in Dallas. Smith is a pass rusher extraordinaire, who does not seem to be hampered by his injury issues through the 2010 season. With Prince Amukamara on the board, the Texans will think hard, but the talk is all about a pass rusher right now, and Smith is possibly the best left on the board, so the pick is made.

12, Minnesota Vikings- Jake Locker, QB, Washington

While this pick does not appear to represent value, in three years, it will be looked upon as one of the better picks of this draft. As Cam Newton still flatters to deceive under a new head coach in Carolina and Blaine Gabbert is unable to bring success to a talent-filled team in San Francisco, Jake Locker has already begun to show his talents in Minnesota. He needs some work, but is a high character player with a good football brain. The issue of his accuracy can be overcome with footwork coaching, and the greater worry is a perceived fear in the face of the pass rush. Going up against Jared Allen in practice every day is a way of throwing him in at the deep end to test this one, and could be the making of Jake Locker.

13, Detroit Lions- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Possibly the easiest pick to make in the draft, the Lions dreamt of being able to write Amukamara’s name on their card. Chances are they didn’t expect to and haven’t learnt the spelling, but either way they rush to the podium with this one, and don’t even consider the offensive tackle that appears to be their fallback pick. Jimmy Smith will be closer in their minds to Amukamara than many imagine, and could even be the pick here, but Amukamara is the better overall talent without the concerns over his character, so he becomes the corner who could help to elevate the Lions into the playoffs.

14, St Louis Rams- Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

The Rams did not come into the draft looking for a defensive end, but they come away with Bowers because the value was superb. Corey Liuget was the other pick, but Bowers’ production in 2010 was too much to ignore. Whether or not the Rams are okay with his knee is a lottery, but if they are he will give them a top pairing at defensive end, and both he and Long could wreak havoc and cause no end of trouble for offensive co-ordinators. Defensive tackles and receivers can be found later, but a player of Bowers’ quality will not.

15, Miami Dolphins- Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

The Dolphins have seen Mallett four times since the Combine. They are certainly doing their due diligence, which they surely would not be doing if they were overly worried by his character. As a pure pocket passer, he is better than anyone in this draft, and will be if he wants to be and can learn to slide away from pressure. If he learns that, he’ll be a top tier quarterback for a long time. The cliche of the Dolphins looking for the next Dan Marino keeps coming out, but Mallett could be their next Marino, and they certainly need one.

16, Jacksonville Jaguars- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

This pick is a commonly-mocked pick, but as usual this is for a reason. The Jaguars have a need for a pass rushing defensive end. Kerrigan fits that need. The Jaguars like high character, blue collar, hard working players. Kerrigan fits this. He may not have the ability of Aldon Smith or even Adrian Clayborn, but he will do what he needs to do to get the most out of his ability, and will work as hard as anyone else on the team. He fits into a talented, young line, and could be a part of a group which stays together for a long time.

17, New England Patriots- Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Jordan is a Bill Belichick type of player. He will line up at defensive end in the Patriots’ three man front, but from there can defend the run, russ the passer and move around. He can do enough for Belichick to ask something different of him every week, and will become a typical Patriots player who is a valuable cog in a well-schemed whole. Not the edge rusher that Patriots fans want, but a player Bill Belichick will love to have on his roster.

18, San Diego Chargers- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin

The Chargers want to add to their front seven, and see Watt slip past Dallas, past Houston and past New England. Happily they wander up to the podium with his name on their paper. He will add to their already talented defense, and will be an upgrade opposite Louis Castillo at defensive end. Not the impact player some fans will look for, but the type of player you look for at this stage of the first round- solid, without too much risk and able to start straight away.

19, New York Giants- Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

Castonzo is in the running for the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft, and, while he is not a traditional Giants’ offensive lineman, but he is a finesse left tackle with the chance of forcing his way into the top tier. He can come in and start immediately, with David Diehl moving inside to left guard. A better prospect than Mike Pouncey, at a more important position, so the Giants overlook a popular mock pick.

20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

The Buccaneers wanted a pass rusher, but with only Adrian Clayborn on the board, they decide not to take the risk and go for the much safer pick in the knowledge that they can pick up a defensive end or two in later rounds. Carimi is the number one tackle on some boards, and can contribute early on for Buccs. His bulk and ability to drive back linemen will suit LaGarrette Blount’s powerful running style, and he will grow into pass protection with a quarterback who has a good feel for the rush.

21, Kansas City Chiefs- Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida

The Chiefs may have looked at Phil Taylor here until injury concerns began to spring up in recent weeks. Coupled with his character issues they mean he is too much of a risk to pick here, so the Chiefs go for some interior line help. Pouncey is not as talented as his brother, but will be a first round pick based partly on his brother’s NFL rookie season but also because he projects as a starting guard for years to come. The Chiefs could look at Nate Solder and hold out for a guard later, but Pouncey is decent value here and will help immediately.

22, Indianapolis Colts- Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

An idea pick for the Colts, they would have taken Solder even if Carimi was still on the board, and even with two talented defensive tackles sat there for them. Solder is a good pass blocker, who will need to develop before becoming a top level talent, but he should be able to do it easily enough, and the Colts will be confident that he can fill the hole at left tackle and allow Charlie Johnson to move to a more natural position.

23, Philadelphia Eagles- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

The value on this pick is outstanding. Smith is a top ten talent, and there are those who rate him ahead of Prince Amukamara. But for a very suspect character, Smith would be going to somewhere like Houston, Detroit or Dallas. However, with rumours that he lied in Combine interviews, teams are being scared off Smith. His tape is very good, and he projects very nicely at the position in the NFL, so having him alongside the frankly very overrated Asante Samuel will be beneficial for the Eagles’ push towards the Super Bowl in 2011.

24, New Orleans Saints- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

The Saints wanted pass rush, and here they have found it. Clayborn has top ten talent, but his arm is a worry, and teams will not want to select him with a high pick if they feel he cannot fully use it. With those concerns, he could be a huge bust, but his ability suggests that is unlikely, and he has been able to overcome his problems in the past, so can continue to develop his movement. The Saints should be getting a quality edge rusher, and will have one of the better base ends in the league, Will Smith, playing opposite him, which can only help Clayborn to develop.

25, Seattle Seahawks- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

This pick is a difficult one to make, as the Seahawks have a lot of needs all across the board and there is not one which sticks out with this pick. Liuget however is too good for the Seahawks to look elsewhere, and especially for them to reach for a quarterback. He can come in and start straight away, and be an impact player on the interior of their even man front. His athleticism is excellent for his size, and expect him to cause problems for offensive linemen all through the league.

26, Baltimore Ravens- Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

The fit for Baltimore is excellent, and the need is there for them to make this pick. The need is not as large as that at corner or wide receiver, but there is no value with those picks, and Heyward can be a useful piece for the Ravens defense. Ideally he sits at 3-4 end, but he can move inside when required, and will have to do so more often than not in Baltimore’s hybrid scheme. His stock is rising, so the value is good.

27, Atlanta Falcons- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

This pick will have Thomas Dimitroff and his team scratching their heads. They need an outside pass rusher? They don’t like what they see. They need help in the secondary? They don’t like what they see. They need a receiver? Same again. Rudolph will be their default pick, as they don’t expect him to fall to the second round, but the chance that he may and the slight reach at this postion makes this pick one of the least impressive of the round. However, with Tony Gonzalez on the team Rudolph will certainly work for it, and will have one of the all-time greats to learn from.

28, New England Patriots- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

Whether this pick goes to the Patriots or to a team who trades up it is hard to say, but Ingram at 28 makes good sense. The Patriots would like to add a young running back to carry the load for them, allowing Danny Woodhead to carry on in his Kevin Faulk-like role, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to keep some of the pressure off Ingram early in his career. Should another team target Ingram, the Patriots are always happy to trade down, and Denver have two second round picks that the Patriots might be eyeing up here.

29, Chicago Bears- Muhammed Wilkerson, DT, Temple

The Bears are amazed that such a talent falls to them, and are more than happy to pull the trigger. Wilkerson is a top twenty talent at the outside, and possibly even top ten, but having played for a smaller school will not do him any favours, and he will fall here. Chicago are desperate to replace Tommie Harris at defensive tackle, and may well target Wilkerson or Marvin Austin here if Mike Pouncey or one of the top four tackles do not fall to them.

30, New York Jets- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

The Jets were supposed to have found their pass rusher with Vernon Gholston, but that realy did not pan out, so the Jets look to the opposite of Gholston here. Ayers falls due to his poor workouts whereas Gholston was picked solely on workouts. Ayers needs work, but Rex Ryan will be happy to have a talent to mould into his scheme, and even if he does not turn into a top edge rusher, he will contribute, unlike Gholston. A solid pick at this position.

31, Pittsburgh Steelers- Dereck Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

The main needs for Pittsburgh going into this draft are at cornerback and on both lines, although defensive line is less of a need. Sherrod is a good prospect without the potential of a Castonzo or a Smith, but without the risk of a Solder. He will become a very useful tackle, and can start off as a swing backup if the Steelers do not feel he can start straight away. Perhaps this pick allows them to release injury-prone right tackle Willie Colon, who has the talent without any durability.

32, Green Bay Packers- Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor

The Packers have some needs, but not massive ones, so are in a good position to take the best player available with many of their picks. The one place on the offensive line that they need immediate help is at guard, where they would like an upgrade over Darren College, which Danny Watkins can provide. His age works against him, as he was a firefighter before going to Baylor, but he has talent, and will be a long-term starter for the Packers.