Saturday 21 May 2011

2011 Post-Draft Power Rankings: 32-29

Post-Draft Power Rankings


For the next four weeks, we will be counting down the teams of the National Football League and discussing how they stand now that the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. These power rankings will be based on the team’s roster, coaches and continuity, especially important in this coming year, as well as their potential finishing range for the 2011 season. As always, this is designed to create debate, so if you feel your team is hard done by or that they are too high on the list, please do not hesitate to comment.


This edition will look at the bottom four teams in the National Football League, and each week will see eight teams featured until we get to our pre-season Super Bowl favorite. Let’s begin with….


32. Carolina Panthers:


The Carolina Panthers are sat in this spot for a number of reasons. First off, last years statistics were a train wreck. The Panthers ranked dead last in almost every offensive category, including yards per game, passing yards per game (by an astonishing 39.5 yards to Arizona) and points per game (at just 12.3, 4.6 behind the Cleveland Browns). The defense was better, ranking 18th in yards per game but still ranking 26th in points conceded per game. An average game would see Carolina lose 26-12.


Having won the right to pick first in the NFL Draft, things should have been looking up. In some cases they are. The picks of Terrell McClain and Sione Fua, two defensive tackles, in the third round will help to boost one of the league’s worst defensive tackle rotations and will help against the run. However, having traded away their second round pick, one of the most valuable in the draft at 33, the Panthers really had to hit with their first rounder. In a season of so much uncertainty and an offseason potentially just a few weeks long, the pick of Cam Newton means Carolina’s offense is unlikely to improve significantly in 2011.


Looking at the offense, the most important position is one of the weakest. The Panthers seem to have a choice between Jimmy Clausen, who completed just over 50% of his passes in 2010, threw 3 touchdowns and 9 interceptions and racked up a quarterback rating of just 58.4, and Cam Newton, a talented but red raw rookie who will not have the time he needs to become clued up enough to even win the backup role. Newton needs to learn terminology, how to read a defense and go through reads, the basics of running an NFL offense, before he should be allowed to step onto the field, and the chance of him starting in week one should scare Panthers fans. He could easily see his potential ruined in one horrific season.


The rest of the offense has some ability, although the loss of DeAngelo Williams will force Jonathan Stewart to show his true talent, and could give Mike Goodson the chance to show more of what he showed towards the end of 2010. The offensive line should remain largely in tact, which is a good thing, although they will have their work cut out if Cam Newton decides to tuck and run as much as he liked to do at Auburn. The pass catchers are in a bad state, with Steve Smith all but out of the door, Newton or Clausen would have talents such as Brandon LaFell, Armanti Edwards and David Gettis to throw to.


On defense, the Panthers are in a better situation. Charlie Johnson had a big year at defensive end last year, and the chances of him returning to Carolina seem high. The concern is that he only stepped up in his contract year, and could return to under-achieving after the big pay day. Jon Beason is a stud linebacker whichever position he plays, and the Panthers would be a lot better if Thomas Davis found a way to stay healthy alongside him. The secondary is nothing special, but is far from the worst unit in the league, and the Panthers may have found a mid-round steal in Brandon Hogan who could see the field early in 2011.


Continuity-wise, the Panthers are changing a lot. A new head coach means change, and there was plenty of that in Carolina. There will be a new offense under former San Diego Chargers’ tight-end coach Rob Chudzinski, and a new defense under recently-fired former Philadelphia Eagles defensive co-ordinator Sean McDermott. McDermott will likely bring more aggression to the defense, but had a very poor redzone record in Philadelphia, which Riveira should be able to help with after a successful stint as Chargers defensive co-ordinator.


With such a poor offense having no immediate upgrades, a defense with some talent but not massive levels and so much change on both sides of the ball, the chance that Carolina again finish with the first overall pick is significant.


Ceiling: 5-11. Floor: 1-15. Prediction: 2-14.


31. Oakland Raiders:


The Oakland Raiders saw a degree of improvement last year, sweeping their division and posting a solid end of season record at 8-8. They put up a lot of points and managed to boast the second best rushing attack in all of football. Their roster has a lot of young talent with potential, and they have one of the best defensive lines in the AFC. So why are they sat at 31? Well, a number of reasons see them in this spot, which will be seen as too low by a number of fans, Raiders or otherwise. Their draft was downright bad, and their defense was helped so much by a certain Nnamdi Asomugha.


Turing to the Raiders’ draft first, the top pick, Stefan Wisniewski, who can fit as either a guard or a centre, was a good pick, and will start from day one. The rest of the draft was not good. Neither Van Dyke nor Chekwa will be able to have much of an immediate impact, and the only player with much chance of seeing the field for any significant period of time in 2011 is Taiwan Jones. Even then, Jones is nothing special, just a speedy back who was able to shine against poor opposition at a small school.


Looking first at the Raiders offense, the key area of last season was a strong running game. Darren McFadden broke out in 2011, rushing for over 1,100 yards, and racking up a yards per carry average of 5.2. He was also a huge factor in the passing game, to the delight of a great many fantasy owners. However, the chances of Michael Bush leaving Oakland are considerable, and without a back like Bush to be the compliment to McFadden, his effectiveness will decrease, and his chance of injury will increase. Taiwan Jones is not that back. The Raiders’ passing game is nothing to shout from the rooftops about either. Jason Campbell seems set as the starter, but his inconsistency is a big issue, and the lack of an experienced receiver will hurt Oakland. They seem to have the option of a short pass to McFadden or tight end Zach Miller, or go long. There is a chance of an explosive offense, and expect some high-scoring games involving the Raiders in 2011, but expect the Raiders to be playing catch-up.


The reason that the Raiders will be playing catch-up for much of 2011 is simple. Nnamdi Asomugha is set to become a member of the NFC East, either with Dallas or Philadelphia, leaving Oakland’s strong pass defense is a bad way. The ranking of second in passing yards allowed will bomb in 2011, as none of the corners on the roster come close to matching up against the skills possessed by Asomugha. The defensive line, although talented, was poor against the run in 2010, and will be unable to match their strong sack numbers, which were aided no end by the extra time they were given by Asomugha. Even with the likes of Lamarr Houston, Matt Shaughnessy and Richard Seymour lining up on defense, expect the Raiders to struggle in 2011.


With regards to coaching changes, the Raiders made a bizarre one. After pulling them up to 8-8, head coach Tom Cable was handed his marching orders in favour of Hue Jackson, the former offensive co-ordinator. Jackson has ben touted as a head coach before, but this is the first time he will get that chance. The hiring of Al Saunders as offensive co-ordinator could be a good one, although Jackson will still call the plays, but the hiring of former Bengals defensive co-ordinator Chuck Bresnahan is a recipe for disaster.


The degree of change for the Raiders is significant, as they transition from the zone-blocking scheme run by Cable to the man-blocking scheme favoured by Jackson, and they transition to a new defense without their stud corner. The talent certainly is there, and the Raiders look like an organisation which could break out big time in 2011 or could fall flat on their faces. When that has to be judged, a team run by Al Davis will always lean towards the latter.


Ceiling: 7-9. Floor: 2-14. Prediction: 3-13.


30. Denver Broncos:


The Broncos had a year to forget in 2010. Racking up a 4-12 record which was good enough to earn them the second overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, they enter 2011 with a number of holes and further questions to be answered. They sit at thirty because of those holes and questions, as they are a team who seem to be hinging on one decision. That decision is one of the worst kept secrets in the NFL: will Tim Tebow be the starter? The answer according to most people in the knock is yes.


Can Tebow lead the Broncos forward in 2011? It will be difficult. He will be leading an offense which managed to make a lot of plays last year, but which was unable to make enough of them at the right times. Tebow still needs a lot of work, and the lack of an off-season means that work is just not happening. His throwing motion is still awkward, and his running style does not lend itself to NFL longevity. If he starts in 2011, there is a high chance he won’t finish it. A young, incomplete quarterback needs a strong running game, and Denver don’t have one. Knowshon Moreno flashes talent, but too often goes missing. While it seems as though DeAngelo Williams is likely to become a Bronco, he has a number of other potential landing spots, and the Broncos must not hang their hats on his signing just yet. In terms of weapons, Tebow has plenty, although a tight end would be useful like the one he had at Florida, which they may have found in the 2011 Draft with the selections of Julius Thomas and Virgil Green.


On defense, the Broncos addressed one issue- the pass rush- but not others. Von Miller will post good sack numbers in 2011, but will be weak against the run, and with the lack of any talent whatsoever at defensive tackle, the Broncos’ already terrible run defense shows no sign of improving. The secondary is aided by the two safeties- Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter- drafted, but there is still a hole to be filled at the second corner spot, meaning passing on the Broncos is still possible. A lot relies on the pass rush, with Miller and Elvis Dumervil the key players for Denver, and if that stutters expect the Broncos defense to be among the league’s worst once again.


Although Denver got a solid draft, they need to be big players in free agency, as they need at least one defensive tackle, preferably two, a corner, a running back to compliment Moreno and a defensive end to add to the rotation. With so many holes and question marks, the Broncos could see themselves back up at the top end of the NFL Draft in 2012.


The hiring of Jon Fox as the new head coach should be seen as a good move by Denver, as he can help to solidify the defense. Dennis Allen, the new defensive co-ordinator, did a fine job under Greg Williams in New Orleans, and needs to bring the ingenuity of his defenses to Denver to ensure he remains in a job for more than one season, something which Fox’s presence should help with. The Broncos have kept Mike McCoy as their offensive co-ordinator for 2011, which seems like a good but not great decision. He knows Tim Tebow’s game, which will be useful and he managed a good passing game in 2010, but needs to adapt his offense quickly if Tebow is to get the starting job.


The revamping of the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 will take a lot of work, and will not be achieved overnight. Expect the defense to get better as the season goes on, but how much better will be determined by free agency. On offense, if Tebow starts expect some excitement, some flashes of brilliance, but ultimately disappointment as defenses soon realise they can limit him with relative ease. The Broncos are a team with talent, but a lot of holes, and if they don’t fill those holes, 2011 could be as long as 2010.


Ceiling: 8-8. Floor: 2-14. Prediction: 3-13.


29. Washington Redskins:


The Redskins have problems. Big problems. They could easily fit as the number 32 overall team in these power rankings, but it is largely due to coaching continuity that they do not. They got a good Draft, picking up a lot of bodies to bring in and look at, and will have helped their offense to a large degree. On defense, the 3-4 is still not forming quickly enough, although some more pieces have been added.


Taking a look at the Draft first of all, the Redskins emphatically showed that the Dan Snyder line of drafting- throwing picks away and moving up as far as possible- was thrown out of the window by head coach Mike Shanahan in favour of dropping down and picking up as many picks as they could. Ryan Kerrigan has the work ethic and the athletic ability to learn to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he will take time to make the change, while second round pick Jarvis Jenkins could see time at nose tackle in 2011. The pick of Leonard Hankerson could be the best in the entire draft, as he has number one potential, and the Redskins made every effort to boost the offense, drafting a total of five backs and receivers, with Roy Helu having the chance of being a 1,000 yard rusher in a Shanahan offense.


The offense is still poor however. Helu is a solid back but not explosive, and Ryan Torrain, who flashed great ability in 2010, is a durability nightmare. Expect to see a number of backs featured by Washington as they search for a true number one, but expect them to not find one. Hankerson will take time to develop, leaving Santana Moss, if resigned, to be the number one target again in 2011. The offensive line remains a poor unit overall, but improved through 2010. The elephant in the room is the quarterback situation, with anyone ranging from Rex Grossman to Jon Beck to Ross Tucker claiming they are the starting quarterback. When Grossman seems the most attractive option, something is wrong.


On defense, the Redskins have added two early round picks, but neither will have a massive impact in 2011. Brian Orakopo will have to continue being the one man pass rush, and DeAngelo Hall will need similar interception numbers to 2010 for the Redskins to have even a half-decent defense. Expect the weaknesses in the secondary to be shown up in 2011, despite the addition of OJ Atogwe rendering the Redskins with arguably the best safety pairing in the NFL. In a division with Philadelphia, Dallas and the New York Giants, Washington could concede a lot of points in 2011.


In terms of continuity, the coaching structure remains largely in place. This will help the Redskins in a year where continuity could be enough to win a championship. Of course, they won’t win a championship with anything they have at quarterback right now, and they could sink as low as welcoming Andrew Luck with open arms in 2012, but they have just enough to come close before missing out on Luck.


Ceiling: 6-10. Floor: 3-13. Prediction: 4-12.

Wednesday 4 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft: Part IV

So, we've gone from the downright bad to the below average, cruising past the mediocre and into the good. Today sees the final countdown, the elite eight as we go from good to great, beginning with...

8) Denver Broncos:


Picks: Von Miller (OLB, 2), Rahim Moore (FS, 45), Orlando Franklin (OL, 46), Nate Irving (MLB, 67), Quinton Carter (S, 108), Julius Thomas (TE, 129), Mike Mohamed (LB, 189), Virgil Green (TE, 204), Jeremy Beal (DL, 247).


Summary: Miller should be an impact player from day one, who will get better and better throughout 2011. He provides excellent versatility and should immediately upgrade the Broncos’ pass rush, while being a little weak against the run at first. Moore is a solid pick and will start from day one at free safety, possibly alongside Carter, who may need a little more work. Franklin will likely be a swing backup at first, with starter potential at tackle or guard, and Irving will compete for the middle linebacker spot in 2011. Thomas and Green are both talented pass catchers, who are more long-term options than impact players, and Jeremy Beal is excellent value so late in the draft, although he is a more natural fit in the 3-4.


Verdict: A class with a little bit of everything for Denver. They get help at linebacker and in the secondary, with just defensive tackle remaining a big hole on defense, and add some developmental prospects on offense. A running back would have been nice, but DeAngelo Williams is a strong possibility, and they still need defensive tackles. A quality class for Denver, both for 2011 and for the long-term.


7) New York Giants:


Picks: Prince Amukamara (CB, 19), Marvin Austin (DT, 52), Jerrel Jernigan (WR, 83), James Brewer (OT, 117), Greg Jones (LB, 185), Tyler Sash (SS, 198), Jacquian Williams (LB, 202), Da’Rel Scott (RB, 221).


Summary: Amukamara’s fall was a surprise to most, who wondered how he got past Houston at eleven let alone Detroit at thirteen. Their loss is the Giants’ gain however as they pick a potential lock down corner to add to their already talented secondary. Austin too is a steal, but his character means he comes with a warning. If the Giants can make him work at his game and give him desire- which they should have no problem doing- he will be a top defensive tackle. Jernigan is a slot guy who will help the Giants’ return game and work his way into the offense eventually. Brewer is a developmental tackle, just what the Giants need, with a very high ceiling, which could see him become a starting left tackle in the future. Jones is a high character player who will be a core special teamer, and Sash could start for a lot of teams from day one.


Verdict: A draft where the Giants got a little bit of everything they wanted. A developmental tackle who could be very good, help in the secondary, a talented defensive tackle and a solid linebacker. Another linebacker would have been useful, and perhaps some help at guard, but this class is top quality, and should push the Giants forward in 2011 and beyond. One of the best of the draft.


6) Pittsburgh Steelers:


Picks: Cam Heyward (DE, 31), Marcus Gilbert (OT, 63), Curtis Brown (CB, 95), Cortez Allen (CB, 128), Chris Carter (OLB, 162), Keith Williams (OL, 196), Baron Batch (RB, 232).


Summary: Heyward is undoubtedly talented, and will have time to develop behind some quality defensive linemen. He will see time on the field in 2011, but will not likely start until 2012 or beyond. Gilbert is a very good pick, again as the Steelers look to the future, who should see some playing time in 2011 on the right side of the offensive line. Brown’s value is excellent, and he has the potential to develop into a number two corner sometime down the road. Brown will join Allen on special teams and hoping to get on the field as the dime corner, with both potentially seeing time. Carter will see most action on special teams as the Steelers look to develop him as a pass rusher for the future, and Williams will work to stay on the roster.


Verdict: A superb class looking to the future, as the top five picks could all develop into significant contributors, if not starters. Heyward, Gilbert and one of the two corners will contribute in 2011, and this could be the best under the radar class of the draft. No spectacular players to get noticed, but undoubted talent with most picks.


5) Cleveland Browns:


Picks: Phil Taylor (DT, 21), Jabaal Sheard (DE, 37), Greg Little (WR, 59), Jordan Cameron (TE, 102), Owen Marecic (FB, 124), Buster Skrine (CB, 137), Jason Pinkston (OT, 150), Eric Hagg (DB, 248).


Summary: The Taylor pick is baffling considering that the Browns already Ahtuyba Rubin, who is a very similar player. However, the defense is likely to see both playing together, which will be very difficult to run on. Sheard fills a pass rush need, and is a solid pick at thirty-seven overall. Little may be a bit of a reach, but he has intriguing upside for a team that need a big, physical receiver, and Cameron could become a star tight end if he develops well. Marecic adds to the Browns’ bruising running game, and Skrine and Pinkston could develop starters in the long term.


Verdict: Taylor and Sheard need some developing, but will no doubt make an impact in 2011, and Marecic and Little could start from day one. This class has a mix of impact players and long-term developmental prospects, aided massively by the trade with the Falcons. A top end class in 2011


4) New Orleans Saints:


Picks: Cameron Jordan (DE, 24), Mark Ingram (RB, 28), Martez Wilson (LB, 72), Johnny Patrick (CB, 88), Greg Romeus (DL, 226), Nate Bussey (243).


Summary: Jordan is a player who should have gone much higher, so his value is good. He may be a better fit in a 3-4, and is similar in that respect to Will Smith. Saints fans should not expect a dynamic pass rusher, but he is a highly talented player who will have an impact. Ingram too is good value, and should see a lot of carries. There are concerns as to how well he holds up, but he should contribute significantly with a spread out field. Wilson too is a steal in round three, and could start at any one of the three linebacker positions for the Saints. Patrick is a talent who could see action early, and will keep up the Saints good record of creating turnovers. Romeus continues the top talent and value of this class, but he has injury concerns. If he stays healthy he will be a great pick at the bottom of round seven and could be the biggest steal of the draft.


Verdict: A small class, but a hugely talented one. The Saints added a defensive end, a potential starter on the interior of the defensive line, and other talent all over the field. An offensive tackle would have been nice, but with the talent the Saints have picked up they will be contenders for the Super Bowl in 2011 and beyond. An excellent draft class.


3) Kansas City Chiefs:


Picks: Jonathan Baldwin (WR, 26), Rodney Hudson (OL, 55), Justin Houston (OLB, 70), Allen Bailey (DE, 86), Jalil Brown (CB, 118), Ricky Stanzi (QB, 135), Gabe Miller (OLB, 140), Jerrell Powe (DL, 199), Shane Bannon (RB, 223).


Summary: Baldwin is a talented deep threat to take pressure away from Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles, and should make life easier for the Chiefs on offense. He is a diva, but so was Bowe to an extent, and the Chiefs were able to make him very productive. Hudson is a solid pick who will start for ten years at guard or centre, and both Houston and Bailey are excellent value pick-ups. Houston should start early, while Bailey needs to develop his technique a little, and has time to do so. Brown factors in as a situational player, and he and Miller should both see time on special teams. Stanzi has potential as a very good back-up, and will likely win the number two job before the start of the season. Powe too could make an impact in his first year, although it is unlikely to be a great one.


Verdict: Baldwin and Hudson will start from day one, and the Chiefs have a plethora of potential impact players, as well as long-term prospects. Even if the bottom three prospects do not work out, this will be considered a good class for the Chiefs. For the second year running, Kansas City deliver one of the best crops of rookies in the draft.


2) Baltimore Ravens:


Picks: Jimmy Smith (CB, 27), Torrey Smith (WR, 58), Jah Reid (OT, 85), Tandon Doss (WR, 123), Chykie Brown (DB, 164), Pernell McPhee (DL, 165), Tyrod Taylor (QB, 180), Anthony Allen (RB, 225).


Summary: Jimmy Smith has top ten talent, and should be kept in line by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed as Baltimore’s leaders. If they cannot keep him straight, then it’s highly unlikely that anyone could. He has lockdown corner potential. Torrey Smith is a speedster, who gives the Ravens an immediate deep threat. He will likely have one year playing with Derrick Mason to learn his craft, which will help immensely. Reid provides good value too, and should develop into a dependable right tackle. Picking up Doss in round four could be the best value of all, and he could have more of an impact than Torrey Smith in 2011. Taylor gives them someone to compete to back-up Joe Flacco, but he is never likely to be any more than that.


Verdict: A very good looking class here, especially for the long-term. All of the first four picks could become starters soon for Baltimore, and all of them present good value, with Brown and McPhee likely to see significant playing time as rookies. One of the best classes of the draft.


1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:


Picks: Adrian Clayborn (DE, 20), Da’Quan Bowers (DE, 51), Mason Foster (LB, 84), Luke Stocker (TE, 104), Ahmad Black (SS, 151), Allen Bradford (RB, 187), Anthony Gaitor (DB, 222), Daniel Hardy (TE, 238).


Summary: Clayborn was a top ten projection after his 2009 season but dropped after a dip in 2010 and some concerns over a condition which restricts his movement in his right arm. If he overcomes that condition, he could be an excellent defensive end. Bowers is also not without his injury problems, and he may have to sit for some time to ensure his knee is healthy, but if he can stay healthy for some time he will be a steal at fifty-first overall. Foster too is a steal, and he can play any of the three positions in a 4-3, which will be very helpful for him to see action in his rookie year. Stocker is primarily a blocker, but can catch passes, and may see some redzone targets off play action. Black is another value pick in the fifth who can contribute from day one. Bradford will see some goal line carries in 2011 and Hardy could see some action if he sticks on the roster.


Verdict: A class with a lot of impact players and a lot of potential too. Bowers and Clayborn could be the next Freeney and Mathis if they can get healthy, and Foster, Stocker and Black could all be starters sooner rather than later. An excellent class, possibly the league’s best.

Tuesday 3 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft: Part III

We have seen the bottom half of the 2011 NFL Draft classes over the last two days, so it's time to go from the average to the solid to the good as we count down from the sixteenth class to the ninth. Of course, this could all change in three years time, but until then, let's get started with....

16) Buffalo Bills:


Picks: Marcell Dareus (DE, 3), Aaron Williams (DB, 34), Kelvin Sheppard (ILB, 68), Da’Norris Searcy (DB, 100), Chris Hairston (OL, 122) Johnny White (RB, 133), Chris White (ILB, 169), Justin Rodgers (DB, 206), Michael Jasper (DT, 245).


Summary: Dareus is a versatile defender who can start as a 3-4 end or a 4-3 tackle, and will generate pressure as well as helping to upgrade Buffalo’s run defense. Williams provides a versatile defender who can play corner or free safety, so will see a lot of time on the field as a rookie. Sheppard is also likely to see a lot of playing time in his rookie year, and the competition at inside linebacker should help Paul Poszlusny to improve on his disappointing 2010 play. Johnny White is a solid value pick who may see some goal line carries in 2011, as well as possibly taking the role as the short-yardage back. Searcy, Chris White and Rodgers will also help the Bills on special teams


Verdict: A solid draft class for the Bills, with all three top picks likely to be starters by the end of the 2011 season, if not before. The Bills will have improved their run defense and their pass coverage, although the three defensive backs may be a little excessive. The lack of a receiver and developmental quarterback drag the class down a little, but I like what Buffalo have done.


15) Philadelphia Eagles:


Picks: Danny Watkins (OG, 23), Jaiquawn Jarrett (S, 54), Curtis Marsh (CB, 90), Casey Matthews (LB, 116), Alex Henery (K, 120), Dion Lewis (RB, 149), Julian Vandervelde (OL, 161), Jason Kelce (OL, 191), Brian Rolle (LB, 193), Greg Lloyd (LB, 237), Stanley Havili (FB, 240).


Summary: Watkins is a solid pick with little risk, and should become one of the better guards in the NFL. His age acts against development, but he will be very solid and a great locker room guy. Jarrett’s selection is a little odd, although Quintin Mikell is a free agent, so Jarrett provides some insurance in case Mikell leaves. Marsh could see some playing time as a rookie, but he is not the number two corner to play opposite Asante Samuel yet. Matthews is an interesting pick, as he is best suited to the middle, where the Eagles have a lot of talent. Henery is a kicker in the fourth round, but he has a lot of talent and will be David Akers’ long term replacement. Lewis is a back in the mould of LeSean McCoy, and gives the Eagles another option alongside McCoy, Jerome Harrison and Havili, who will be the replacement at fullback for Leonard Weaver. Vandervelde should make the roster as a backup, as could Kelce at centre, with Rolle and Lloyd looking for special teams’ spots.


Verdict: A large class, with a lot of upside, but not a lot of initial impact. Watkins will start from day one, but the rest of the class may not, although they offer a lot of future potential and depth at key positions. A good class, but not enough impact players to make it towards the top of the list.


14) Washington Redskins:


Picks: Ryan Kerrigan (OLB, 16), Jarvis Jenkins (DL, 41), Leonard Hankerson (WR, 79), Roy Helu (RB, 105), Dejon Gomes (CB, 146), Niles Paul (WR, 155), Evan Royster (RB, 177), Aldrick Robinson (WR, 178), Brandyn Thompson (DB, 213), Maurice Hurt (OL, 217), Markus White (DE, 224), Chris Neild (NT, 253).


Summary: Kerrigan is much better suited to a role as a 4-3 defensive end than as a 3-4 pass rusher, but his work ethic is enough to make me think that he will make it work. Jenkins could play any position on the Redskins line, and is another piece in what was a terrible front seven in 2010. Hankerson is a physical, number one type receiver, who may not be great straight away, but he will develop into a good receiver for a team which needs one. Helu is a solid back who can contribute under Mike Shanahan, but Evan Royster does not project brilliantly to the NFL. Gomes can compete for a spot as the dime corner, and will be a good special teamer for the Redskins. Paul is a decent pick in the fifth and has potential to play in the slot, while Robinson could also see action in the slot. The seventh rounders could all find a roster spot in Washington and are likely to land somewhere if not.


Verdict: A surprising draft for the Redskins as they turn a few picks into a large number with some clever trades and add a lot to a depleted team. There are some players who can have an impact in 2011, but most are developmental players. Washington will continue to struggle in 2011, but this class could see them have the foundations of a good team for the future. A good class.


13) Arizona Cardinals:


Picks: Patrick Peterson (CB, 5), Ryan Williams (RB, 38), Robert Housler (TE, 69), Sam Acho (OLB, 103), Anthony Sherman (RB, 136), Quan Sturdivant (ILB, 171), David Carter (DT, 184), Demarco Sampson (WR, 249).


Summary: Peterson was the best player in the whole draft for me, so picking him up at five was excellent value. He will be a starting corner from day one, and should emerge as one of the league’s best in a short amount of time. Williams has talent, but dipped significantly in 2010. The 2009 Williams would be a good pick here, but there is risk. This means Beanie Wells is as good as done in Arizona. The value on Housler was not great, but the Cardinals needed a tight end who can be a factor in the passing game and there was little else after Housler. Acho’s value is good, and he will be a factor on special teams from day one. He is an intelligent player who will work hard to develop and should contribute in the long term. Sturdivant stands out among the late round picks as some had him going in the third. He could start from day one at inside linebacker, but should be a long term starter for the Cardinals.


Verdict: A class which looks a little more long-term than short-term with developmental players like Acho and Sturdivant, and Peterson should contribute for years. Williams and Housler add some good talent to the offense and could have an impact in 2011. If the Cardinals can get a quarterback, this class should help them push forwards towards .500.


12) Green Bay Packers:


Picks: Dereck Sherrod (OT, 32), Randall Cobb (WR, 64), Alex Green (RB, 96), Davon House (CB, 131), DJ Williams (TE, 141), Caleb Schlauderaff (OL, 179), DJ Smith (LB, 186), Ricky Elmore (DE, 197), Ryan Taylor (TE, 218), Lawrence Guy (DT, 233).


Summary: Sherrod is a safe pick and allows the Packers to be happy with their replacements if Chad Clifton goes down hurt next year. He could play left or right tackle, but is likely to be a right tackle in the long term. Cobb is an exciting, do-it-all type who will be a factor in the return game, as well as giving this offense a new dimension in the style of Percy Harvin. Green is very similar to Ryan Grant, and a little bit of a wasted pick with Grant and James Starks on the roster, but it could mean the end of Ryan Grant in Green Bay. House is a developmental prospect, as is Williams, with the rest competing for a spot on the roster, and Smith likely to stick as a core special teamer.


Verdict: A large class which gives the Packers some intriguing options for 2011 and beyond. They will be likely to have hit on one of the late rounders, and will hope that Davon House can live up to his measurables to make this class a little better than the solidly above average group it looks to be.


11) Indianapolis Colts:


Picks: Anthony Castonzo (OT, 22), Ben Ijalana (OL, 49), Drake Nevis (DT, 87), Delone Carter (RB, 119) Chris Rucker (CB, 188).


Summary: Castonzo is the best pure pass protector in the draft, and to get him at twenty-two overall is a very good value pick. He is ideal for the Colts, and may develop into a top ten left tackle given some experience, which he will get from week one. Ijalana is flexible enough to be a swing back-up at first, but he should settle at right tackle in time or the Colts could decide he fits better at guard. Nevis is an undersized penetrator, who will be used situationally at first, until he gets a little bigger. Carter will probably factor in as the short yardage back who may get some goal line carries, rather than the starter, although with the Colts’ set of running backs he may well end up taking a lot of snaps. Rucker is not the usual small corner the Colts like, and will need to work hard. He could hang on as a special team gunner.


Verdict: The Colts have sured up their offensive line with two players who could start for ten years, and have found a potential impact player at defensive tackle who should develop in time. Carter is a solid pick given the value, and the class looks good for both immediate impact and long-term potential. The size of the class means it is not quite among the best, but it is pushing the top ten.


10) Houston Texans:


Picks: JJ Watt (DE, 11), Brooks Reed (OLB, 42), Brandon Harris (CB, 28), Rashad Carmichael (CB, 127), Shiloh Keo (DB, 144), TJ Yates (QB, 152), Derek Newton (OL, 214), Cheta Ozougwu (DE, 254).


Summary: Watt fits well into Wade Phillips’ one gap 3-4 scheme, and should be an impact player from the start of the 2011 season opposite Mario Williams, giving offensive linemen some problems. Reed is a value pick in the second, who also fills a big need, and he too will have an impact in 2011 as a pass rusher. The criticism of Watt for not being Prince Amukamara is eliminated with trade up to pick up Harris at the bottom of the second, which was the perfect thing for Houston to do. He will likely start in 2011, and may take some time to develop but should be a good player going forward. Carmichael will need some developing, but will be a long-term option, as will Keo. Yates will have time to develop, and has some potential as a back-up, while the others will fight to stick on the roster.


Verdict: A very good top-heavy class, with three players who could start in week one. The Texans have decided to attack the secondary with three picks, and all could develop into long-term starters, which would make this class very useful in the future. A good top end, with some developmental potential later makes the class better than solid.


9) Cincinnati Bengals:


Picks: AJ Green (WR, 4), Andy Dalton (QB, 35), Dontay Moch (OLB, 66), Clint Boling (OL, 101), Robert Sands (FS, 134), Ryan Whalen (WR, 167), Korey Lindsay (CB, 207), Jay Finley (RB, 246).


Summary: The Bengals wanted AJ Green and were happy to see him land in their laps. His ceiling is very high, and he seems to be a safe pick, probably the best pick the Bengals could have made. Dalton is more of a developmental prospect than a potential starter, but the Bengals needed a quarterback and he was the best fit for the system left on the board in round two. Moch’s measurables are elite, but where he fits in the system is difficult to say. He needs a lot of developing before being more than s special teamer. The value on Sands and Boling is excellent, and both could contribute in their rookie seasons, with the last three picks mainly to sure up one of the better special teams’ units in the NFL.


Verdict: This class gets better the more you look at it. Green has Hall of Fame potential, and Moch could develop into a stud in time. Dalton will be a good pick if allowed to sit for a year or two, but will likely be thrown into the fire in his rookie year. Some good 2011 prospects and some better long-term prospects figure to improve the Bengals if they can only find a startable quarterback.

Monday 2 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft: Part II:

Yesterday we saw the countdown begin, and reached number twenty-five in our countdown. Now we see teams twenty-four to seventeen, as we go from the downright bad to the mediocrely average. To kick things off we have....

24) Seattle Seahawks:


Picks: James Carpenter (OT, 25), John Moffitt (OG, 75), KJ Wright (LB, 99), Kris Durham (WR, 107), Richard Sherman (CB, 154), Mark Legree (FS, 156), Byron Maxwell (DB, 173), Lazarius Levingston (DL, 205), Malcolm Smith (OLB, 242).


Summary: Carpenter is an intriguing pick. It is certainly a reach, and I can only assume the Seahawks were unable to trade out of their pick. However, he fits the scheme at a position of need, so the pick is not necessarily a bad one. Moffitt also adds to the offensive line on the inside, and the first two picks will help the Seahawks run the ball more effectively in 2011. Durham showed good ability at the start of 2010 when he did not have AJ Green overshadowing him, and could be a useful weapon in the future for Seattle. Wright will be a special teamer who should see some playing time while developing into his position. Sherman and Legree can both compete for positions in a secondary which needs upgrading, and should both help on special teams.


Verdict: An interesting class, which boosts the offensive line but does little else in the short-term. There is some long-term potential, but Seahawks fans would have liked to see a corner taken earlier, and probably some defensive line help. Not the worst class in the league, but far from the best.


23) Dallas Cowboys:


Picks: Tyron Smith (OT, 9), Bruce Carter (ILB, 40), DeMarco Murray (RB, 71), David Arkin (OL, 110), Josh Thomas (CB, 143), Dwayne Harris (WR, 176), Shaun Chapas, RB, 220), Bill Nagy (C, 252).


Summary: Smith is an immediate starter on the right side on the line, who should become a good left tackle, with top level potential. He may have to start on the left side if Doug Free decides he can find a better situation elsewhere. Carter is a good value pick, but is the second inside linebacker picked in the second round in the last two years, and may have to stick to special teams for 2011. Murray is similar to Felix Jones, and will struggle to find a place in the Cowboys’ offense early in his career, while Chapas, the second back taken, is likely to be somewhere else in 2011. Thomas could be the third corner by the time the season is half way through, and has long-term starter potential, while Harris will stick on the roster and could work his way up.


Verdict: Smith could end up as the only 2011 starter, although Carter and Thomas will make an impact. Murray and Arkin should provide depth, and both have long-term potential, as does Harris. A poor class for immediate impact, but some good long-term potential. Dallas fans could be disappointed


22) Minnesota Vikings:


Picks: Christian Ponder (QB, 12), Kyle Rudolph (TE, 43), Christian Ballard (DT, 106), Brandon Burton (CB, 139), Demarcus Love (OL, 168), Mistral Raymond (DB, 170), Brandon Fusco (OL, 172), Ross Homan (LB, 200), D’Aundre Reed (DL, 215), Stephen Burton (WR, 236).


Summary: Ponder’s talent was not worthy of the twelfth overall pick, but the VIkings needed a quarterback, and there was no way he would have fallen to them in the second. Even a trade back would have been risky, so they picked up a good fit for the system. His injury issues will be a concern however. Rudolph gives him a dependable target, and a good blocker for Adrian Peterson to run behind. Ballard fell due to a failed drug test, and he has borderline first round talent, so can be a young defensive tackle who may start alongside Kevin Williams in 2011. Love and Raymond should both contribute as rookies, but are more developmental players, and Homan could see more playing time as the year goes on. The other three are not going to contribute early, although Fusco is an intriguing prospect for the future.


Verdict: The Vikings pick up some players who will start in 2011, and a few to develop, although their potential is not massive. Ponder has a good weapon in Rudolph, but the VIkings may not have a number one receiver next year, and his offensive line has not been upgraded. A solid but unspectacular class.


21) Chicago Bears:


Picks: Gabe Carimi (OT, 29), Stephen Paea (DT, 53), Chris Conte (S, 93) Nathan Enderle (QB, 160), James Thomas (LB, 195).


Summary: The value that the Bears got for the top two picks is outstanding. Some experts had Carimi going as high as nine overall to Dallas, so to get him at 29 is excellent. He is a plug-in-and-play right tackle who can solidify the offensive line straight away. Paea will also start early in the season, and is going to be useful for inside pressure to help Peppers and Idonije on the outside. He was a projected first rounder, so his value is great too. Conte is a good pick to make an impact on special teams, as well as seeing some time as a box safety. Enderle was seen as a sleeper for a few people, and lands in an interesting spot as the number three, with James Thomas fitting into the Tampa-2 scheme well, but needed to work hard for his spot on the roster.


Verdict: A small class, but a decent one for Chicago. Carimi and Paea will improve the team in the two biggest need areas, but Conte will likely be a special teamer primarily for his first year. They could have done with keeping their fourth round pick and using it on an interior linemen, but a good top end for 2011 and some developmental potential. Middle of the road for Chicago.


20) New England Patriots:


Picks: Nate Solder (OT, 17), Ras-I Dowling (DB, 33), Shane Vereen (RB, 56), Stevan Ridley (RB, 73), Ryan Mallett (QB, 74), Marcus Cannon (OL, 138), Lee Smith (TE, 159), Markell Carter (LB, 194), Malcolm Williams (DB, 219).


Summary: Solder is a high-ceiling left tackle with a small amount of risk attached, but the Patriots have a detailed report from a contact who knows Solder well, so Bill Belichick will be confident that he can be a star for New England. Dowling is an injury-plagues player, but his talent is considerable, and if he can stay healthy he could be a starter at corner or free safety for a long time for the Patriots. Vereen is a Kevin Faulk-like back, who will compete with Danny Woodhead for that role in 2011, and Ridley appears to be the replacement for Sammy Morris as he is likely to retire this off-season. Mallett is simply a value pick, and the value is truly excellent- top ten talent in the third round, and the chance that Belichick turns him into a first round pick in two years time is high. Cannon is a great value pick too, and will start as soon as he recovers from cancer, hopefully very soon. The other picks will be competing for a spot on the roster.


Verdict: A class with a lot of talent, the Patriots will sure up their offensive line for years, and add to their running back rotation. However, they have not addressed the pass rush issue or the depth on the defensive line. A good class, but not a needs-based class to a great extent, so it will be somewhat disappointing for Patriots fans hoping for the next Clay Matthews


19) Tennessee Titans:


Picks: Jake Locker (QB, 8), Akeem Ayers (LB, 39), Jurrell Casey (DT, 77), Colin McCarthy (LB, 109), Jamie Harper (RB, 130), Karl Klug (DL, 142), Byron Singily (OT, 175), Zach Clayton (DT, 212), Tommie Campbell (DB, 251).


Summary: Locker was seen by many as a reach, but he has a lot of talent. He is athletic and passes very well on the move. Being paired with Chris Johnson with only help his development, but the Titans would like to sit him for a while before asking him to take the reigns. Ayers is a value pick, perhaps better suited to a 3-4, and will likely end up as a defensive end, which may not be an ideal move. Casey adds much needed depth to the defensive tackle rotation, and could work his way into the starting line-up before the end of 2011. McCarthy ould end up as the replacement for Stephen Tulloch if he leaves in free agency, and will be an important special teams player. Harper adds to the depth behind Chris Johnson, while Klug could be a good player in the line rotation and the rest will fight for a spot on the roster.


Verdict: A solid class which will eventually depend on the Locker pick. I like Locker, so add him as a positive to the Casey and McCarthy picks, while I think the Ayers pick will end up as a disappointment. A middle of the road class with some impact players and some long-term potential, but neither in spades.


18) New York Jets:


Picks: Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, 30), Kendrick Ellis (NT, 94), Bilal Powell (RB, 126), Jeremy Kerley (WR, 153), Greg McElroy (QB, 208), Scotty McKnight (WR, 227).


Summary: Wilkerson is one of the best picks of the first round, as the Jets pick up their replacement for Shaun Ellis and a starter for years to come. Kendrick Ellis is also a good pick for the defensive line, as Sione Pouha can play the nose until Ellis is ready to take over, and he can be another piece of the long-term puzzle. The Powell pick is a little unnecessary, especially with Joe McKnight on the roster, and he is unlikely to be any more than a special teamer in 2011 and probably beyond as well. Kerley can contribute on special teams, and could factor into the passing game as the season goes on, although McKnight is likely to only be a special teamer if he makes the roster. McElroy was everyone’s favorite sleeper at quarterback, and he should develop into a good back-up for Sanchez, although he would never be someone they would be comfortable starting.


Verdict: The Jets add to their defensive line and fortify an already elite defense. However, the rest of their picks are uninspiring, and they did not pick up the pass rusher they were looking for or the safety they need. An okay class with some developmental potential, but definitely not challenging the top classes in 2011.


17) Detroit Lions:


Picks: Nick Fairley (DT, 13), Titus Young (WR, 44), Mike Leshoure (RB, 57), Douglas Hogue (LB, 157), Johnny Culbreath (OT, 209).


Summary: Fairley and Suh together is a scary prospect for any interior lineman who faces Detroit any time soon, but both have similar skill-sets, and are unlikely to make the best partnership in the middle. They could be kicked to the outside, as Suh was at times last year, which would be intriguing for Detroit. Young is a good complement to Calvin Johnson, and his speed will mean that there is always going to be an option to get the ball to one of the two. Leshoure is a good complement to Jahvid Best, and a good value pick towards the bottom of round 2, although he is the second early round back to go to Detroit in the last two drafts. Hogue will play special teams, although he may have to see the field with Detroit’s linebackers and Culbreath will fight for a roster spot.


Verdict: While the talent levels brought in are high, this class does not fit Detroit’s needs at all. They are a young team with lots of talent, and needed a top end corner like Prince Amukamara and at least two linebackers who can compete for starting spots. In a vacuum, this draft is great at the top end, in Detroit, it is not. Top talent, but needs reduce this to an average class for now.

Sunday 1 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft:

The first in a four day series counting down the draft classes of the 2011 NFL Draft. Of course, a true assessment cannot be made for a long time yet, but this is an initial judgement of how each team has done, starting with the worst and finishing with the best class on the 2011 NFL Draft. So, the bottom eight teams, beginning with....

32) San Diego Chargers:

Picks: Corey Liuget (DE, 18), Marcus GIlchrist (DB, 50), Jonas Mouton (OLB, 61), Vincent Brown (WR, 82), Shareece Wright (CB, 89), Jordan Todman (RB, 183), Steve Schilling (OL, 201), Andrew Gachkar (OLB, 234).


Summary: Liuget seems a better fit as a three technique than a five, but can play either role, and should upgrade the Chargers’ defensive line. However, with Cameron Jordan on the board, the Chargers made the wrong pick in my opinion. Gilchrist is a versatile player, although a little overdrafted, and should see action as a third corner and on special teams. Mouton is certainly overdrafted, but he will play special teams as he develops into a potential starter in time. Brown is possibly the best pick for San Diego, and he could see action in the slot in his rookie year. Wright’s stock was harmed by an injury in 2010, so is a bit of a gamble, but he has talent and could be a steal in the third round. Todman is a replacement for Darren Sproules, while Schilling is a versatile backup.


Verdict: A poor looking draft for San Diego, who arguably missed on every pick. They add some talent to their defense, but not on the scale that was hoped, and did not get an impact player other than Liuget. Some long-term potential, but very little to get excited about in a draft which could have moved San Diego forward significantly. One of the worst classes in the league.


31) Carolina Panthers:

Picks: Cam Newton (QB, 1), Terrell McClain (DT, 65), Sione Fua (DT, 97), Brandon Hogan (CB, 98), Kaloha Pilares (WR, 132), Lawrence Wilson (LB, 166), Zachary Williams (OL, 203), Lee Ziemba (OL, 244).


Summary: Newton is a developmental player with huge talent levels, but he needs too much work to be seen as the correct pick at one overall. He could become a star, but it will take him three years plus to develop into one, and will start long before then. McClain and Fua add to the defensive tackle rotation, which was poor in 2010, and could both become starters by the end of 2011, although that is more to do with a lack of strength at the position than their talent. Hogan can be another corner competing to be the nickel corner, which is about the talent level of every corner on the roster, and the rest of the class is little to get excited about, although Pilares and Wilson will be expected to help on special teams.


Verdict: A poor class from the team with the best chance for a good one. Newton is too risky to take there, and the lack of a second rounder really hurt this class. Both defensive tackles could end up contributing to a large degree, but neither is the stud the Panthers would have liked, and they will be lucky for the rest of the class to see the field. Some long-term potential, but nothing to be excited about for 2011.


30) Oakland Raiders:


Picks: Stefen Wisniewski (OL, 48), Demarcus Van Dyke (CB, 81), Joseph Barksdale (OT, 92), Chimdi Chekwa (CB, 113), Taiwan Jones (RB, 125), Denarius Moore (WR, 148), Richard Gordon (TE, 181), David Ausberry (WR, 241).


Summary: Wisniewski is an excellent pick, who will be a ten year starter from day one at either guard or centre. A good value pick too at forty-eight overall. Van Dyke has prodigious speed but will have to do more than run in a straight line to be a success in the NFL. He and Chekwa are the attempts to replace the soon to depart Nnamdi Asomugha, and Chekwa is probably the better pick, although neither figure to even come close to what the Raiders once had. Barksdale is potentially a great pick as he could develop into a very good left tackle, but need time. Jones is, of course, a speedster, but his tape is small-school tape, and his true talent is therefore difficult to evaluate. He was not really overdrafted, but probably will not develop into what the Raiders would like. Moore is, of course, a fast receiver, and another with a lot of potential but who needs a lot of time, as every Raiders receiver seems to be. Gordon caught ten balls in college, but surprise surprise he ran a 4.6 forty time.


Verdict: A good first pick and a lot of potential, this class is very hit or miss. I lean more towards the miss side, and there are not enough safe bets for a team like the Raiders who need players who can start now. Overall this could be seen as a great class in three years time, but every Raiders class is like that and they never work out. Poor drafting.


29) Atlanta Falcons:


Picks: Julio Jones (WR, 6), Akeem Dent (LB, 91), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, 145), Matt Bosher (K, 192), Andrew Jackson (OL, 210), Cliff Matthews (DT, 230).


Summary: Jones has star quality, and has been brought in to push the Falcons over the edge. He can play opposite Roddy White from day one and will benefit from a top tier quarterback and a lack of double coverage, meaning he may have more of an impact than rookie receivers tend to. The trade deal was steep, but if Jones helps them win a Super Bowl in the next two years, no-one will question the decision. Dent is a solid pick who will help out on special teams, and will add to what is already an above average linebacking corps. Rodgers is a small, shifty, hard to bring down back, but his size (standing at just 5’6”) is always going to limit him in the NFL, and will leave him susceptible to injuries. Bosher can kick and punt, but it’s difficult to see why the Falcons drafted him in the sixth round, and Matthews provides good value with their final pick.


Verdict: The trade-up for Jones really limited what the Falcons could bring in with this class, having given up their first, second and fourth for him. It was bold and could work out well, but it means they will only add one immediate starter in this draft, and that is at receiver, where rookies do not always show their real talent for two or three years.


28) St. Louis Rams:


Picks: Robert Quinn (DE, 14), Lance Kendricks (TE, 47), Austin Pettis (WR, 78), Greg Salas (WR, 112), Jermale Hines (DB, 159), Mikail Baker (DB, 216), Jabara Williams (OLB, 228), Jonathan Nelson (DB, 229).


Summary: Quinn is a talented prospect with some question marks to overcome, but playing opposite a talent like Chris Long should be beneficial to his development. It could mean he has a large impact in his rookie year as Long takes away double teams. Kendricks is a talented H-back, but how he fits into a Josh McDaniels offense is difficult to see. If McDaniels can use him well, he could be a useful weapon for Sam Bradford to add. Austin Pettis and Greg Salas are not the type of receiver that Rams’ fans were hoping for- both more like slot receivers with their good route-running skills and excellent hands than the field-stretcher many were hoping for. Hines has talent, but needs to develop, which will take time, and the final three picks are only going to be an impact on special teams, if they stick on the roster.


Verdict: A disappointing class for the Rams, as they pick up a tight end which is not really needed and two receivers who are similar to what they already have. Quinn should work out well, but there was a bigger need on the inside, and there is not a huge deal of developmental talent. A low end class which could drop even further if Hines does not work out.


27) Miami Dolphins:


Picks: Mike Pouncey (OL, 15), Daniel Thomas (RB, 62), Edmond Gates (WR, 111), Charles Clay (TE, 174), Frank Kearse (DT, 231), Jimmy Wilson (DB, 235).


Summary: Pouncey was rather overdrafted, but will plug straight in and start for a long time. He projects better to guard than centre, meaning Ritchie Incognito is likely to move to centre, leaving Pouncey at guard alongside John Jerry. Thomas is a risky pick in the second round with his injury issues, but he is a back who could carry the load in Miami, especially behind such a strong offensive line. Gates is the speedy receiver the Dolphins need, but needs some work before he can have the impact he could have in his second or third year. Clay is versatile, and could line up in the backfield or at tight end, but will not have a huge impact. Kearse and Wilson will fight to stay on the roster.


Verdict: A small class which is underwhelming, Pouncey is the star but is never going to live up to expectation, and Thomas could be hurt more often than not. There should be some immediate impact and Gates gives a developmental prospect, but this class could look a lot better.


26) San Francisco 49ers:


Picks: Aldon Smith (OLB, 7), Colin Kaepernick (QB, 36), Chris Culliver (CB, 80), Kendall Hunter (RB, 115), Daniel Kilgore (OG, 163), Ronald Johnson (WR, 182), Colin Jones (DB, 190), Bruce Miller (DE, 211), Michael Person (OL, 239), Curtis Holcomb (DB, 250).


Summary: Smith is a raw, talented pass rusher who had some injury problems in 2010. He may not contribute massively in his rookie year, but he should how flashes, and has the potential to become a stud edge rusher for the 49ers. However, he was a little overdrafted at seven overall. Kaepernick has talent to work with, but is very raw, and the 9ers will need him to sit and develop for longer than he likely will. The value is poor, but there is potential there. Culliver has good measurables, but also needs to develop and is another long-term player. Hunter could usurp Anthony Dixon as the backup very early, and has good potential. Kilgore is versatile and can play a number of positions on the offensive line, so will stick as a backup. Johnson is an interesting prospect, again as a developmental player, but could become something, while Miller and Person could stick as back-ups.


Verdict: This class is very much a look to the long-term future, and only really addresses one need for 2011. Even then, Smith is unlikely to show his full talent this year. If all goes well, this class will be better than average, but rarely does all go well, and it could turn out that the 49ers only hit on one or two picks. A disappointing class for a team that needs some upgrades to win in 2011.


25) Jacksonville Jaguars:


Picks: Blaine Gabbert (QB, 10), Williams Rackley (OG, 76), Cecil Shorts (WR, 114), Chris Prosinski (S, 121), Rod Isaac (DB, 147).


Summary: The trade-up for Gabbert has grown on me as time has gone on. The Jaguars needed a quarterback for the future, and getting Gabbert at ten is decent value, although their needs were greater in other areas. Rackley projects well to guard, but needs developing, which can be done behind a decent pair of guards in Jacksonville. Shorts is another small-school player (as are Rackley, Issac and Prosinski) with good potential, but with small school players come high risk. Prosinski looks to be a solid backup, but he will have the most impact on special teams, as should Isaac.


Verdict: The Gabbert trade made it difficult for the Jaguars to address the secondary and pass rush needs, but they have picked up some intriguing developmental prospects, mostly small school players with the attached risk. Potentially a top quality class, but the lack of immediate impact players makes it barely above average.