Monday 2 May 2011

Assessing the 2011 NFL Draft: Part II:

Yesterday we saw the countdown begin, and reached number twenty-five in our countdown. Now we see teams twenty-four to seventeen, as we go from the downright bad to the mediocrely average. To kick things off we have....

24) Seattle Seahawks:


Picks: James Carpenter (OT, 25), John Moffitt (OG, 75), KJ Wright (LB, 99), Kris Durham (WR, 107), Richard Sherman (CB, 154), Mark Legree (FS, 156), Byron Maxwell (DB, 173), Lazarius Levingston (DL, 205), Malcolm Smith (OLB, 242).


Summary: Carpenter is an intriguing pick. It is certainly a reach, and I can only assume the Seahawks were unable to trade out of their pick. However, he fits the scheme at a position of need, so the pick is not necessarily a bad one. Moffitt also adds to the offensive line on the inside, and the first two picks will help the Seahawks run the ball more effectively in 2011. Durham showed good ability at the start of 2010 when he did not have AJ Green overshadowing him, and could be a useful weapon in the future for Seattle. Wright will be a special teamer who should see some playing time while developing into his position. Sherman and Legree can both compete for positions in a secondary which needs upgrading, and should both help on special teams.


Verdict: An interesting class, which boosts the offensive line but does little else in the short-term. There is some long-term potential, but Seahawks fans would have liked to see a corner taken earlier, and probably some defensive line help. Not the worst class in the league, but far from the best.


23) Dallas Cowboys:


Picks: Tyron Smith (OT, 9), Bruce Carter (ILB, 40), DeMarco Murray (RB, 71), David Arkin (OL, 110), Josh Thomas (CB, 143), Dwayne Harris (WR, 176), Shaun Chapas, RB, 220), Bill Nagy (C, 252).


Summary: Smith is an immediate starter on the right side on the line, who should become a good left tackle, with top level potential. He may have to start on the left side if Doug Free decides he can find a better situation elsewhere. Carter is a good value pick, but is the second inside linebacker picked in the second round in the last two years, and may have to stick to special teams for 2011. Murray is similar to Felix Jones, and will struggle to find a place in the Cowboys’ offense early in his career, while Chapas, the second back taken, is likely to be somewhere else in 2011. Thomas could be the third corner by the time the season is half way through, and has long-term starter potential, while Harris will stick on the roster and could work his way up.


Verdict: Smith could end up as the only 2011 starter, although Carter and Thomas will make an impact. Murray and Arkin should provide depth, and both have long-term potential, as does Harris. A poor class for immediate impact, but some good long-term potential. Dallas fans could be disappointed


22) Minnesota Vikings:


Picks: Christian Ponder (QB, 12), Kyle Rudolph (TE, 43), Christian Ballard (DT, 106), Brandon Burton (CB, 139), Demarcus Love (OL, 168), Mistral Raymond (DB, 170), Brandon Fusco (OL, 172), Ross Homan (LB, 200), D’Aundre Reed (DL, 215), Stephen Burton (WR, 236).


Summary: Ponder’s talent was not worthy of the twelfth overall pick, but the VIkings needed a quarterback, and there was no way he would have fallen to them in the second. Even a trade back would have been risky, so they picked up a good fit for the system. His injury issues will be a concern however. Rudolph gives him a dependable target, and a good blocker for Adrian Peterson to run behind. Ballard fell due to a failed drug test, and he has borderline first round talent, so can be a young defensive tackle who may start alongside Kevin Williams in 2011. Love and Raymond should both contribute as rookies, but are more developmental players, and Homan could see more playing time as the year goes on. The other three are not going to contribute early, although Fusco is an intriguing prospect for the future.


Verdict: The Vikings pick up some players who will start in 2011, and a few to develop, although their potential is not massive. Ponder has a good weapon in Rudolph, but the VIkings may not have a number one receiver next year, and his offensive line has not been upgraded. A solid but unspectacular class.


21) Chicago Bears:


Picks: Gabe Carimi (OT, 29), Stephen Paea (DT, 53), Chris Conte (S, 93) Nathan Enderle (QB, 160), James Thomas (LB, 195).


Summary: The value that the Bears got for the top two picks is outstanding. Some experts had Carimi going as high as nine overall to Dallas, so to get him at 29 is excellent. He is a plug-in-and-play right tackle who can solidify the offensive line straight away. Paea will also start early in the season, and is going to be useful for inside pressure to help Peppers and Idonije on the outside. He was a projected first rounder, so his value is great too. Conte is a good pick to make an impact on special teams, as well as seeing some time as a box safety. Enderle was seen as a sleeper for a few people, and lands in an interesting spot as the number three, with James Thomas fitting into the Tampa-2 scheme well, but needed to work hard for his spot on the roster.


Verdict: A small class, but a decent one for Chicago. Carimi and Paea will improve the team in the two biggest need areas, but Conte will likely be a special teamer primarily for his first year. They could have done with keeping their fourth round pick and using it on an interior linemen, but a good top end for 2011 and some developmental potential. Middle of the road for Chicago.


20) New England Patriots:


Picks: Nate Solder (OT, 17), Ras-I Dowling (DB, 33), Shane Vereen (RB, 56), Stevan Ridley (RB, 73), Ryan Mallett (QB, 74), Marcus Cannon (OL, 138), Lee Smith (TE, 159), Markell Carter (LB, 194), Malcolm Williams (DB, 219).


Summary: Solder is a high-ceiling left tackle with a small amount of risk attached, but the Patriots have a detailed report from a contact who knows Solder well, so Bill Belichick will be confident that he can be a star for New England. Dowling is an injury-plagues player, but his talent is considerable, and if he can stay healthy he could be a starter at corner or free safety for a long time for the Patriots. Vereen is a Kevin Faulk-like back, who will compete with Danny Woodhead for that role in 2011, and Ridley appears to be the replacement for Sammy Morris as he is likely to retire this off-season. Mallett is simply a value pick, and the value is truly excellent- top ten talent in the third round, and the chance that Belichick turns him into a first round pick in two years time is high. Cannon is a great value pick too, and will start as soon as he recovers from cancer, hopefully very soon. The other picks will be competing for a spot on the roster.


Verdict: A class with a lot of talent, the Patriots will sure up their offensive line for years, and add to their running back rotation. However, they have not addressed the pass rush issue or the depth on the defensive line. A good class, but not a needs-based class to a great extent, so it will be somewhat disappointing for Patriots fans hoping for the next Clay Matthews


19) Tennessee Titans:


Picks: Jake Locker (QB, 8), Akeem Ayers (LB, 39), Jurrell Casey (DT, 77), Colin McCarthy (LB, 109), Jamie Harper (RB, 130), Karl Klug (DL, 142), Byron Singily (OT, 175), Zach Clayton (DT, 212), Tommie Campbell (DB, 251).


Summary: Locker was seen by many as a reach, but he has a lot of talent. He is athletic and passes very well on the move. Being paired with Chris Johnson with only help his development, but the Titans would like to sit him for a while before asking him to take the reigns. Ayers is a value pick, perhaps better suited to a 3-4, and will likely end up as a defensive end, which may not be an ideal move. Casey adds much needed depth to the defensive tackle rotation, and could work his way into the starting line-up before the end of 2011. McCarthy ould end up as the replacement for Stephen Tulloch if he leaves in free agency, and will be an important special teams player. Harper adds to the depth behind Chris Johnson, while Klug could be a good player in the line rotation and the rest will fight for a spot on the roster.


Verdict: A solid class which will eventually depend on the Locker pick. I like Locker, so add him as a positive to the Casey and McCarthy picks, while I think the Ayers pick will end up as a disappointment. A middle of the road class with some impact players and some long-term potential, but neither in spades.


18) New York Jets:


Picks: Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, 30), Kendrick Ellis (NT, 94), Bilal Powell (RB, 126), Jeremy Kerley (WR, 153), Greg McElroy (QB, 208), Scotty McKnight (WR, 227).


Summary: Wilkerson is one of the best picks of the first round, as the Jets pick up their replacement for Shaun Ellis and a starter for years to come. Kendrick Ellis is also a good pick for the defensive line, as Sione Pouha can play the nose until Ellis is ready to take over, and he can be another piece of the long-term puzzle. The Powell pick is a little unnecessary, especially with Joe McKnight on the roster, and he is unlikely to be any more than a special teamer in 2011 and probably beyond as well. Kerley can contribute on special teams, and could factor into the passing game as the season goes on, although McKnight is likely to only be a special teamer if he makes the roster. McElroy was everyone’s favorite sleeper at quarterback, and he should develop into a good back-up for Sanchez, although he would never be someone they would be comfortable starting.


Verdict: The Jets add to their defensive line and fortify an already elite defense. However, the rest of their picks are uninspiring, and they did not pick up the pass rusher they were looking for or the safety they need. An okay class with some developmental potential, but definitely not challenging the top classes in 2011.


17) Detroit Lions:


Picks: Nick Fairley (DT, 13), Titus Young (WR, 44), Mike Leshoure (RB, 57), Douglas Hogue (LB, 157), Johnny Culbreath (OT, 209).


Summary: Fairley and Suh together is a scary prospect for any interior lineman who faces Detroit any time soon, but both have similar skill-sets, and are unlikely to make the best partnership in the middle. They could be kicked to the outside, as Suh was at times last year, which would be intriguing for Detroit. Young is a good complement to Calvin Johnson, and his speed will mean that there is always going to be an option to get the ball to one of the two. Leshoure is a good complement to Jahvid Best, and a good value pick towards the bottom of round 2, although he is the second early round back to go to Detroit in the last two drafts. Hogue will play special teams, although he may have to see the field with Detroit’s linebackers and Culbreath will fight for a roster spot.


Verdict: While the talent levels brought in are high, this class does not fit Detroit’s needs at all. They are a young team with lots of talent, and needed a top end corner like Prince Amukamara and at least two linebackers who can compete for starting spots. In a vacuum, this draft is great at the top end, in Detroit, it is not. Top talent, but needs reduce this to an average class for now.

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