Post-Draft Power Rankings
For the next four weeks, we will be counting down the teams of the National Football League and discussing how they stand now that the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. These power rankings will be based on the team’s roster, coaches and continuity, especially important in this coming year, as well as their potential finishing range for the 2011 season. As always, this is designed to create debate, so if you feel your team is hard done by or that they are too high on the list, please do not hesitate to comment.
This edition will look at the bottom four teams in the National Football League, and each week will see eight teams featured until we get to our pre-season Super Bowl favorite. Let’s begin with….
32. Carolina Panthers:
The Carolina Panthers are sat in this spot for a number of reasons. First off, last years statistics were a train wreck. The Panthers ranked dead last in almost every offensive category, including yards per game, passing yards per game (by an astonishing 39.5 yards to Arizona) and points per game (at just 12.3, 4.6 behind the Cleveland Browns). The defense was better, ranking 18th in yards per game but still ranking 26th in points conceded per game. An average game would see Carolina lose 26-12.
Having won the right to pick first in the NFL Draft, things should have been looking up. In some cases they are. The picks of Terrell McClain and Sione Fua, two defensive tackles, in the third round will help to boost one of the league’s worst defensive tackle rotations and will help against the run. However, having traded away their second round pick, one of the most valuable in the draft at 33, the Panthers really had to hit with their first rounder. In a season of so much uncertainty and an offseason potentially just a few weeks long, the pick of Cam Newton means Carolina’s offense is unlikely to improve significantly in 2011.
Looking at the offense, the most important position is one of the weakest. The Panthers seem to have a choice between Jimmy Clausen, who completed just over 50% of his passes in 2010, threw 3 touchdowns and 9 interceptions and racked up a quarterback rating of just 58.4, and Cam Newton, a talented but red raw rookie who will not have the time he needs to become clued up enough to even win the backup role. Newton needs to learn terminology, how to read a defense and go through reads, the basics of running an NFL offense, before he should be allowed to step onto the field, and the chance of him starting in week one should scare Panthers fans. He could easily see his potential ruined in one horrific season.
The rest of the offense has some ability, although the loss of DeAngelo Williams will force Jonathan Stewart to show his true talent, and could give Mike Goodson the chance to show more of what he showed towards the end of 2010. The offensive line should remain largely in tact, which is a good thing, although they will have their work cut out if Cam Newton decides to tuck and run as much as he liked to do at Auburn. The pass catchers are in a bad state, with Steve Smith all but out of the door, Newton or Clausen would have talents such as Brandon LaFell, Armanti Edwards and David Gettis to throw to.
On defense, the Panthers are in a better situation. Charlie Johnson had a big year at defensive end last year, and the chances of him returning to Carolina seem high. The concern is that he only stepped up in his contract year, and could return to under-achieving after the big pay day. Jon Beason is a stud linebacker whichever position he plays, and the Panthers would be a lot better if Thomas Davis found a way to stay healthy alongside him. The secondary is nothing special, but is far from the worst unit in the league, and the Panthers may have found a mid-round steal in Brandon Hogan who could see the field early in 2011.
Continuity-wise, the Panthers are changing a lot. A new head coach means change, and there was plenty of that in Carolina. There will be a new offense under former San Diego Chargers’ tight-end coach Rob Chudzinski, and a new defense under recently-fired former Philadelphia Eagles defensive co-ordinator Sean McDermott. McDermott will likely bring more aggression to the defense, but had a very poor redzone record in Philadelphia, which Riveira should be able to help with after a successful stint as Chargers defensive co-ordinator.
With such a poor offense having no immediate upgrades, a defense with some talent but not massive levels and so much change on both sides of the ball, the chance that Carolina again finish with the first overall pick is significant.
Ceiling: 5-11. Floor: 1-15. Prediction: 2-14.
31. Oakland Raiders:
The Oakland Raiders saw a degree of improvement last year, sweeping their division and posting a solid end of season record at 8-8. They put up a lot of points and managed to boast the second best rushing attack in all of football. Their roster has a lot of young talent with potential, and they have one of the best defensive lines in the AFC. So why are they sat at 31? Well, a number of reasons see them in this spot, which will be seen as too low by a number of fans, Raiders or otherwise. Their draft was downright bad, and their defense was helped so much by a certain Nnamdi Asomugha.
Turing to the Raiders’ draft first, the top pick, Stefan Wisniewski, who can fit as either a guard or a centre, was a good pick, and will start from day one. The rest of the draft was not good. Neither Van Dyke nor Chekwa will be able to have much of an immediate impact, and the only player with much chance of seeing the field for any significant period of time in 2011 is Taiwan Jones. Even then, Jones is nothing special, just a speedy back who was able to shine against poor opposition at a small school.
Looking first at the Raiders offense, the key area of last season was a strong running game. Darren McFadden broke out in 2011, rushing for over 1,100 yards, and racking up a yards per carry average of 5.2. He was also a huge factor in the passing game, to the delight of a great many fantasy owners. However, the chances of Michael Bush leaving Oakland are considerable, and without a back like Bush to be the compliment to McFadden, his effectiveness will decrease, and his chance of injury will increase. Taiwan Jones is not that back. The Raiders’ passing game is nothing to shout from the rooftops about either. Jason Campbell seems set as the starter, but his inconsistency is a big issue, and the lack of an experienced receiver will hurt Oakland. They seem to have the option of a short pass to McFadden or tight end Zach Miller, or go long. There is a chance of an explosive offense, and expect some high-scoring games involving the Raiders in 2011, but expect the Raiders to be playing catch-up.
The reason that the Raiders will be playing catch-up for much of 2011 is simple. Nnamdi Asomugha is set to become a member of the NFC East, either with Dallas or Philadelphia, leaving Oakland’s strong pass defense is a bad way. The ranking of second in passing yards allowed will bomb in 2011, as none of the corners on the roster come close to matching up against the skills possessed by Asomugha. The defensive line, although talented, was poor against the run in 2010, and will be unable to match their strong sack numbers, which were aided no end by the extra time they were given by Asomugha. Even with the likes of Lamarr Houston, Matt Shaughnessy and Richard Seymour lining up on defense, expect the Raiders to struggle in 2011.
With regards to coaching changes, the Raiders made a bizarre one. After pulling them up to 8-8, head coach Tom Cable was handed his marching orders in favour of Hue Jackson, the former offensive co-ordinator. Jackson has ben touted as a head coach before, but this is the first time he will get that chance. The hiring of Al Saunders as offensive co-ordinator could be a good one, although Jackson will still call the plays, but the hiring of former Bengals defensive co-ordinator Chuck Bresnahan is a recipe for disaster.
The degree of change for the Raiders is significant, as they transition from the zone-blocking scheme run by Cable to the man-blocking scheme favoured by Jackson, and they transition to a new defense without their stud corner. The talent certainly is there, and the Raiders look like an organisation which could break out big time in 2011 or could fall flat on their faces. When that has to be judged, a team run by Al Davis will always lean towards the latter.
Ceiling: 7-9. Floor: 2-14. Prediction: 3-13.
30. Denver Broncos:
The Broncos had a year to forget in 2010. Racking up a 4-12 record which was good enough to earn them the second overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, they enter 2011 with a number of holes and further questions to be answered. They sit at thirty because of those holes and questions, as they are a team who seem to be hinging on one decision. That decision is one of the worst kept secrets in the NFL: will Tim Tebow be the starter? The answer according to most people in the knock is yes.
Can Tebow lead the Broncos forward in 2011? It will be difficult. He will be leading an offense which managed to make a lot of plays last year, but which was unable to make enough of them at the right times. Tebow still needs a lot of work, and the lack of an off-season means that work is just not happening. His throwing motion is still awkward, and his running style does not lend itself to NFL longevity. If he starts in 2011, there is a high chance he won’t finish it. A young, incomplete quarterback needs a strong running game, and Denver don’t have one. Knowshon Moreno flashes talent, but too often goes missing. While it seems as though DeAngelo Williams is likely to become a Bronco, he has a number of other potential landing spots, and the Broncos must not hang their hats on his signing just yet. In terms of weapons, Tebow has plenty, although a tight end would be useful like the one he had at Florida, which they may have found in the 2011 Draft with the selections of Julius Thomas and Virgil Green.
On defense, the Broncos addressed one issue- the pass rush- but not others. Von Miller will post good sack numbers in 2011, but will be weak against the run, and with the lack of any talent whatsoever at defensive tackle, the Broncos’ already terrible run defense shows no sign of improving. The secondary is aided by the two safeties- Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter- drafted, but there is still a hole to be filled at the second corner spot, meaning passing on the Broncos is still possible. A lot relies on the pass rush, with Miller and Elvis Dumervil the key players for Denver, and if that stutters expect the Broncos defense to be among the league’s worst once again.
Although Denver got a solid draft, they need to be big players in free agency, as they need at least one defensive tackle, preferably two, a corner, a running back to compliment Moreno and a defensive end to add to the rotation. With so many holes and question marks, the Broncos could see themselves back up at the top end of the NFL Draft in 2012.
The hiring of Jon Fox as the new head coach should be seen as a good move by Denver, as he can help to solidify the defense. Dennis Allen, the new defensive co-ordinator, did a fine job under Greg Williams in New Orleans, and needs to bring the ingenuity of his defenses to Denver to ensure he remains in a job for more than one season, something which Fox’s presence should help with. The Broncos have kept Mike McCoy as their offensive co-ordinator for 2011, which seems like a good but not great decision. He knows Tim Tebow’s game, which will be useful and he managed a good passing game in 2010, but needs to adapt his offense quickly if Tebow is to get the starting job.
The revamping of the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 will take a lot of work, and will not be achieved overnight. Expect the defense to get better as the season goes on, but how much better will be determined by free agency. On offense, if Tebow starts expect some excitement, some flashes of brilliance, but ultimately disappointment as defenses soon realise they can limit him with relative ease. The Broncos are a team with talent, but a lot of holes, and if they don’t fill those holes, 2011 could be as long as 2010.
Ceiling: 8-8. Floor: 2-14. Prediction: 3-13.
29. Washington Redskins:
The Redskins have problems. Big problems. They could easily fit as the number 32 overall team in these power rankings, but it is largely due to coaching continuity that they do not. They got a good Draft, picking up a lot of bodies to bring in and look at, and will have helped their offense to a large degree. On defense, the 3-4 is still not forming quickly enough, although some more pieces have been added.
Taking a look at the Draft first of all, the Redskins emphatically showed that the Dan Snyder line of drafting- throwing picks away and moving up as far as possible- was thrown out of the window by head coach Mike Shanahan in favour of dropping down and picking up as many picks as they could. Ryan Kerrigan has the work ethic and the athletic ability to learn to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he will take time to make the change, while second round pick Jarvis Jenkins could see time at nose tackle in 2011. The pick of Leonard Hankerson could be the best in the entire draft, as he has number one potential, and the Redskins made every effort to boost the offense, drafting a total of five backs and receivers, with Roy Helu having the chance of being a 1,000 yard rusher in a Shanahan offense.
The offense is still poor however. Helu is a solid back but not explosive, and Ryan Torrain, who flashed great ability in 2010, is a durability nightmare. Expect to see a number of backs featured by Washington as they search for a true number one, but expect them to not find one. Hankerson will take time to develop, leaving Santana Moss, if resigned, to be the number one target again in 2011. The offensive line remains a poor unit overall, but improved through 2010. The elephant in the room is the quarterback situation, with anyone ranging from Rex Grossman to Jon Beck to Ross Tucker claiming they are the starting quarterback. When Grossman seems the most attractive option, something is wrong.
On defense, the Redskins have added two early round picks, but neither will have a massive impact in 2011. Brian Orakopo will have to continue being the one man pass rush, and DeAngelo Hall will need similar interception numbers to 2010 for the Redskins to have even a half-decent defense. Expect the weaknesses in the secondary to be shown up in 2011, despite the addition of OJ Atogwe rendering the Redskins with arguably the best safety pairing in the NFL. In a division with Philadelphia, Dallas and the New York Giants, Washington could concede a lot of points in 2011.
In terms of continuity, the coaching structure remains largely in place. This will help the Redskins in a year where continuity could be enough to win a championship. Of course, they won’t win a championship with anything they have at quarterback right now, and they could sink as low as welcoming Andrew Luck with open arms in 2012, but they have just enough to come close before missing out on Luck.
Ceiling: 6-10. Floor: 3-13. Prediction: 4-12.
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