Super Bowl Preview

This Sunday will be one of the biggest days of the sporting calendar. Each and every year the first Sunday in February provides one of sport’s greatest spectacles from across the pond in the USA. It has all the glitz and glamour of an A-List party in Los Angeles and all the raw passion and competition of a gladiatorial contest in the Roman Colosseum. Millions of households across the United States will be opening the crates of beer, packets of crisps, dips, burgers, hot dogs and anything else under the sun for the big game, and the big party that comes with it, and millions of others all over the world will be doing the same. This Sunday is known throughout the world as Super Bowl Sunday, an event that can rivaled only by events on the scale of the FIFA World Cup final.

This year sees two of the most storied franchises in NFL history go head to head. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have a combined 168 years in existence, 52 playoff teams, 18 league championships and 9 Super Bowl victories. The only teams that can come close to either of these two in terms of history are the Washington Redskins and Chicago Bears. And both pale in comparison to these two teams who will win their 19th combined league title this Sunday.

2011 sees the added attraction of Jerryworld, or as it is better known, Cowboys Stadium. The stadium is regarded by many as the best stadium in the world, bar none, and Jerry Jones, the Cowboys egotistical owner, will be focussed on making this Super Bowl the biggest the National Football League has ever seen. He could not have wished for a better two teams, barring the Cowboys themselves, and will do all he can to draw the attention of the world’s media towards his team and his stadium.

This event shapes up to be one of the best in recent memory. Last year’s Super Bowl had the oft-repeated story of Hurricane Katriona, and the effect of the New Orleans Saints in binding a community together after such an event. 2009 had the story of the ultimate underdogs, the Arizona Cardinals, against the giants of the modern era, the Pittsburgh Steelers. 2008 had the story of the New England Patriots trying to post just the second, and surely the greatest, undefeated season of the modern-era.

The story of 2011 is multifaceted. On the one hand there is the simple history. On another is Ben Roethlisberger, suspended at the beginning of the year after two sexual assault allegations, potentially returning to lead his team to its third NFL Championship in six years and elevating himself to heights that only true NFL greats have scaled. Another story is the emergence of Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the shadow of one of the all-time greats, Brett Favre. Both franchises have a number of stories to tell, and this game will be dripping with them.

But what of the game itself? In a sport where there is so much passion, so much aggression, so much violence and so much skill, what of the actual events on the field? This game sees Green Bay with the leading passer, rusher and receiver during the playoffs, as well as the league leader in interceptions during this year’s postseason. Can the Steelers compete with a team that has dominated its competition in January? In these categories, the Steelers have just one player in the top five: Rashard Mendenhall sits third in rushing yards, with Big Ben, Mike Wallace and NFL Defensive Player of the Year Troy Polumalu nowhere to be found. Surely the Packers ought to run away with this game?

If you think that, you don’t know football. This is the Super Bowl, the epitome of Any Given Sunday. But this game is no 2008. In 2008, the 16-0 New England Patriots went into the Super Bowl as hot favorites against the New York Giants, with an 10-6 regular season record. Of course, the Giants went on to win that day with one of the greatest defensive gameplans the Super Bowl has ever witnessed, and a miracle play culminating in a David Tyree catch. That game was clear cut, and that game went totally off-script. This game is one of the most even Super Bowl matchups in recent memory. Calling this game is near impossible. Why? Well....

Football is a game of matchups. Head Coach versus Head Coach. Co-ordinator versus co-ordinator. Quarterback versus middle linebacker, receiver versus corner, running back versus tackler, lineman versus lineman. In the NFL, if one man misses his assignment, the results can be disastrous for the play, for the drive, for the half, or even for the game. One missed block could be the difference between which quarterback goes to Disneyland. The match-ups for this game are as even as they get. There is very little which shows a definite advantage for either Pittsburgh or Green Bay in any area, and a case can be made for either of them lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in North Texas this Sunday.

Let’s start with Green Bay’s offense versus Pittsburgh’s defense. Both units are supposed to be good, but how well do they matchup, and where can the co-ordinators find a good match-up? In the running game, Green Bay are at a distinct disadvantage. Pittsburgh gave up a league-low of 1,004 total rushing yards in the regular season. That works out at just 63 yards per game, and is 440 yards less than that given up by the next best run defense. Green Bay Head Coach Mike McCarthy has stated how effective the running game is is secondary to how often it is used. In this game, no matter how many times James Starks carries the ball, he will struggle to generate yardage. If McCarthy sticks to his balanced offense, then Pittsburgh’s punt return team will see a lot of time on the field, and Green Bay’s defense will be made to work very hard.

If Green Bay can generate some form of running game, their passing game will benefit massively. If they cannot, Pittsburgh will be able to drop Ryan Clark and Troy Polumalu deep and limit what Green Bay can do through the air. In terms of a passing game, the Packers have a strong one. Aaron Rodgers threw for 3,922 yards, good for seventh in the NFL this season, with the third highest quarterback rating. Greg Jennings, his leading receiver, accounted for more of those yards than any other, totaling 1,265 on the year, good for fourth in the NFL. Green Bay’s next best receiver was James Jones, with 679 yards. The Packers also have Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson at wideout, and Andrew Quarless as a threat from the tight end position.

The Steelers defense gave up 214 passing yards per game, but the fact that they gave up the lowest yards per pass shows that 214 would be a little lower if not for their top quality run defense. Ryan Clark and Troy Polumalu have been one of the NFL’s best safety tandem throughout 2010, with Clark having stepped up for the playoffs as Polumalu has not been 100%. A lot of this game will come down to Polumalu’s health, as his importance to the Steelers’ defense cannot be overstated. Ike Taylor versus Greg Jennings is the major matchup in this phase of the game, but the sheer number of threats in the passing game that the Packers have should enable them to create favorable matchups. Aaron Rodgers’ mobility will be very helpful against a team that led the league in sacks this season, and the Packers should be able to find some joy through the air in this game.

The Packers’ offense has one advantage and one disadvantage. They may not be able to run the ball with any effectiveness, but they may be able to pass the ball with effectiveness. Running the ball is vital here, as Pittsburgh will hope to be able to snuff out the run and drop their safeties back, allowing them extra help against the pass which they simply would not get if the Packers were able to run the ball with any kind of effectiveness. James Starks and Jon Kuhn may be the key players in this entire game, and Dick LeBeau will be hoping his defense can keep up its fine form that it has shown against the run in 2010.

PIttsburgh have had greater success on the ground than have the Packers. In the conference championship game against the New York Jets, the Steelers’ ground game was dominant. Rashard Mendenhall has had a solid year, totaling 1,273 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, as well as contributing 167 yards in the passing game. The loss of Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers rookie centre, seems like a loss in the running game, but he was knocked out of the Conference Championship game midway through the first quarter, and the Steelers were still able to dominate with the run.

Green Bay have a very good front seven, but they still gave up 114.9 rushing yards per game throughout the 2010 season. That was just 18th in the league. So Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore and Isaac Redman should be able to run the ball enough to keep Dom Capers thinking for the entire game. He will likely have two priorities, and stopping the run will be one of them. In games where Pittsburgh have focussed on the run, they have tended to dominate. In the three games that Mendenhall has rushed for over 100 yards, Pittsburgh have won, and in the three additional games where he has racked up 80 yards, they Steelers have only lost one game.

If that was not enough of a reason for Pittsburgh to focus on the run, Green Bay’s secondary could be. A combination of Nick Collins, Sam Shields, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams make up four of the five men who combine to make what is often described as the NFL’s best secondary. As mentioned previously, Dom Capers will have two priorities, one being to stop the run and the other being to stop Mike Wallace. Wallace caught 1,257 yards worth of passes this season, averaging 21 yards per catch and scoring 10 touchdowns too. He has speed to match anyone in the NFL, and Capers may well bracket him with one of his safeties sat very deep on Wallace’s side on every single play.

Along with Mike Wallace, the Steelers have Hines Ward, Emanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. Charles Woodson should be able to play on either Miller or Ward, and he should dominate against either one, leaving Tramon Williams or Sam Shields free to take another of the Steelers receivers. If Ben Roethlisberger was not the quarterback of this team, this passing game would struggle massively on Sunday. Roethlisberger gives receivers a chance to get open with his mobility, and unwillingness to give up on plays. That may well get him sacked on a number of occasions, but for each occasion he gets sacked, he will make a play because he holds onto the ball.

Just like the matchup when Green Bay have the ball, one area of the offense gives an advantage to the Steelers, and one to the Packers. The Steelers should be able to use the running game effectively, and Rashard Mendenhall will come close to 100 yards in this game. In the passing game however, the Packers have the greater talent, and the way Dom Capers deals with Mike Wallace will prove the key. Much like James Starks and Jon Kuhn are the key players for the Packers on offense, whoever is covering Mike Wallace will be the key players on defense. If either team wins both matchups, they will win this game, but I would be willing to bet that the defense wins on both occasions.

Finally, to special teams. Special teams are often overlooked, but are often vital to the outcome of a game. In the return game, Pittsburgh have the advantage, as Green Bay have been unable to find a return man all season, and have struggled greatly returning kicks and punts. The Steelers have returned kicks an average of 3.1 yards further than the Packers through 2010, but the Packers returned punts an average of 1.8 yards further. Pittsburgh have scored the only return touchdown of the two teams, so a kick off or punt is highly unlikely to be returned for a touchdown in this game. While the Steelers have an advantage in the return game, one man who returns to Dallas for this game gives them a disadvantage in the kicking game. Any Cowboys fan will tell you how Shaun Suisham is as a kicker. Mason Crosby is clearly a better kicker, and this could prove vital if either team has to kick a field goal in the final seconds of the game.

So, whichever units are on the field, the game should be even. This game could be won by either team, but the chances are that it will be very close, very dramatic, and very, very enjoyable for all fans, especially the neutrals. Green Bay probably have a slight edge in terms of talent and momentum, but the Steelers have been here before. Just Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett have Super Bowl experience, whereas 25 Steelers, including James Harrison, Chirs Kemoeatu, Troy Polumalu, Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward, have played in, and won, the Super Bowl before. That experience should count for something on Sunday, but the Packers have been installed as 2.5 point favorites.

Whichever way this game goes, it will be tense until the very last seconds. This writer is picking Green Bay by a score of 23-17, with Shaun Suisham missing two field goals which could have been vital. So sit back, dip some chips in some salsa, squeeze out the last bit of ketchup onto a hot dog and crack open the Budweiser, because this one should be special.