AFC East:
New England Patriots:
1, OLB- the Patriots defense was fourteenth in sacks this year, and their sack leader was Rob Ninkovic with four. Considering that the Patriots outscored every other team in the NFL by seventy-seven points last year those sack numbers are not so high. With teams on the ropes, rushing the passer can become more effective, and yet the Patriots were unable to get the kind of numbers they would have liked. When taking into consideration the fact that they finished 32nd in third down conversion percentage, and also 32nd in third downs conceded through the air, the pass rush needs to become more effective, and a stud edge rusher is one of the team’s biggest needs this off-season.
2, S- see the third down stats above. The Patriots finished bottom of the pile in third downs conceded against the pass in 2010. While much of that may have to do with teams chasing the game and taking more risks, it also shows a lot about the Patriots’ defense. Third downs will often be third and short which will usually see short passes go to a running back, tight end or slot receiver. These are the situations where the Pats need a safety who can play the pass well. Patrick Chung is good against the run, but he is not the greatest in pass coverage. Another body to fit in there in passing situations is a need for this defense.
3, CB- the Patriots gave up the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL this year, which, considering the personnel in their secondary, was quite a good achievement. Devin McCourty had a great rookie year, tying Asante Samuel and Troy Polumalu for second most interceptions in the NFL. Alongside McCourty, the Patriots had very little. While Leigh Bodden will be back from injury this season, there are no guarantees that he will be as good as he was. In any case, the Patriots need a guy they can bring in as their nickel guy at first, who can challenge Bodden and McCourty in the next few years. This may be the ideal use of their later first round pick, while a stud outside linebacker should be taken with the Raiders’ first rounder.
4, OT- Matt Light isn’t getting any younger. While Sebastian Vollmer could slide into his left tackle position, that leaves a hole on the right of the line. The Patriots tend to keep an offensive line together, so they should be looking for that next offensive tackle to develop under Light and Vollmer. Steve Maneri has the size, but not the experience at the position, so a late-round offensive tackle or two for the team to develop ought to be a priority.
5, OG- another position on the offensive line that could become a problem is guard. Logan Mankins is the cornerstone of the Patriots offensive line, and one of the league’s best guards, but he already held out last year, and could do so again if he still wants away from New England. Should he leave, the Patriots’ running game will need to change significantly, as the majority of running plays are run his way. If Mankins goes, the Patriots will look to one of the draft’s top guards to grow into the role Mankins played. If there is no corner available, the Patriots could even go for one of the top guards with their late first round pick.
New York Jets:
1, FS- the Jets are a team packed full of talent, so it is difficult to spot many gaping holes. However, one where they are in definite need of an upgrade is free safety. They are currently starting Eric Smith, who is an average player where they need an above-average one. The Jets have a great secondary against the outside receivers, as the stats show, but they give away too many plays over the middle. One of their worst defensive stats is that they are 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. Those touchdowns have tended to be in short yardage situations. The addition of a top free safety prospect should help the Jets defend the middle of the field against the tight end and the slot receiver, and allow Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to keep up their work on the outside.
2, NT- Kris Jenkins is one of the best nose tackles in the business. He missed much of 2009 with injury, and has missed almost all of 2010 with an injury as well. Sione Pouha is an adequate replacement, but he is not the top guy the Jets are looking for at the position. An upgrade could be found in the early-mid rounds of the draft, to dither sit behind Jenkins if he can find some health or to come and challenge Pouha for the starting spot. Another body is certainly needed to go into the Jets camp, and if there are two nose tackles that could come off the board to the Jets, they could well grab them both.
3, WR- Mark Sanchez is the weakest part of the Jets’ offense. The offensive line is elite, the running game is working very well and the receiving core is good. For him to lead this team to a Super Bowl, he needs all the weapons he can get. The Jets are crying out for a top quality slot receiver, one who can make catches in traffic and who has very good hands. Jerricho Cotchery does a good job, but another guy can do no harm to the Jets. If they can go out and grab a guy like Austin Pettis from Boise State then they will add another low-profile but effective weapon to help Mark Sanchez develop.
4, QB- while I am not a Mark Sanchez fan, I am certainly not suggesting that the Jets look to draft his replacement with this pick. I am suggesting that they draft a new backup to replace 40 year old Mark Brunell. I would expect the Jets to pick up a guy in free agency as well, but a raw young guy with physical ability would be a good fit to go into New York and sit and learn for a few years. The Jets are crying out for a Tom Brady style sixth round gem, and I would expect them to go QB a little higher than that in 2011.
5, TE- Dustin Keller started the year very well, but tailed off towards the end, as all fantasy players will know. Like the QB, I’m not suggesting that the Jets go out and draft a replacement for Keller, but I would like to see them go out and pick up a guy who can come in for a couple of series each game and give Keller some rest. I expect Keller to have a good year in 2011, but a back-up would help him to elongate his year into the post-season, something he has not been able to do this season. I would like to see the Jets use a third round pick on a tight end if there is one on the board.
Miami Dolphins:
1, WR- most people will have a running back here, but I don’t. Miami’s rushing attack was not great in 2010. They ranked 21st in rushing yards per game, 30th in yards per rush and 29th in rushing touchdowns. However, the biggest problem for the Dolphins’ offense in 2010 was that they were easy to scheme against. Brandon Marshall is an elite receiver in the NFL, but he is not a downfield guy. Davone Bess is a very good slot receiver, but he is not a downfield guy. The Dolphins have no downfield threat, allowing defenses to play tight to the line against the run and to not need to drop their safeties deep. A downfield threat at receiver would change all of that, and give the rest of the team more room, not to mention taking advantage of their quarterback’s greatest strength- his arm.
2, RB- as the stats above show, the Dolphins running game was not the best in 2010. While that is not all down to the running backs- some goes to the interior offensive line and some goes to the predictability- the Dolphins need a fresh, young and, most importantly, explosive player at the position. They need to keep either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams to enable the young back to stay healthy, but a young back is vital. The biggest problem last year was touchdowns- 27th in passing touchdowns and 29th in rushing touchdowns- and a downfield receiver and explosive running back should help them to bring the stats up to their otherwise average level. I would not however go running back in the first round if a receiver drops to 15. If AJ Green starts to fall, send picks someone’s way and pick him up.
3, C- a good running game relies on a good interior offensive line. If the centre and two guards can’t block the defensive tackles and the middle linebackers, yards per carry will be low. The Dolphins yards per carry was 30th in the NFL this year. With John Jerry and Ritchie Incognito at guard, the Dolphins are pretty set, especially with Jerry, but they really need an upgrade at centre. Joe Berger is intelligent, but not the most able player in the league, and when facing players like Kyle Williams and Vince Wilfork in the division, the Dolphins need a more athletic player at the position if they are to have an effective running game in 2011.
4, OT- the 2011 NFL Draft should be all about offense for the Dolphins. 2010 was all about the defense, which shapes up to be a top tier defense for the next few years. The one problem with the defense is interceptions (the Dolphins finished 28th in the league in picks in 2010), but that will come. The offense needs to stick with running the ball, and another offensive lineman is necessary here. Not to challenge Jake Long, but to challenge for the right tackle spot. As the Dolphins don’t have a second round pick currently, they would have to take a guy later (as receiver or running back will most likely be their first pick, with Mike Pouncey a small possibility) and develop him into a starter over a couple of years.
5, QB- I personally would keep Chad Henne in Miami as the starter. He did not have a great year in 2010, although part of his being in and out of the team was Tony Sparano panicking. With Chad Pennington likely to quit the game due to injury, and Tyler Thigpen being the next man up, I feel that the Dolphins need to draft someone in the mid to late rounds to challenge Thigpen for the back-up spot and to grow for a while. Perhapd they could add a free agent as well to get some competition. What they most need is a young guy who can sit and learn for a few years without having the pressure of trying to be the next Marino from the moment he steps into training camp.
Buffalo Bills:
1, DE- stopping the run is the biggest priority for Buffalo this offseason. They finished 32nd in the NFL in yards per rush allowed in 2010, as well as defending more running plays than any other team. That combination is not a good one. With Kyle Williams anchoring the inside of the offensive line, the Bills need a versatile defensive end to play both the 3-4 and 4-3 if they chose to use both again in 2011. The Bills recorded some good stats on offense and against the pass in 2010, but the run defense let them down, and an elite level defensive end for the 3-4 base set would help the run defense no end.
2, OLB- Buffalo are so desperate to generate a pass rush that they signed Shawne Merriman to a long term contract. Considering the fact that he will spend much of next year hurt, Buffalo need an edge rusher to generate pressure when opponents decide to pass the ball against them. If they can pick up an elite run stopper on the line, pass attempts will increase and they will need to generate more pressure than they did in 2010 (the Bills were 27th in the NFL in sacks and 28th in interceptions) in order for their pass defense not to drop too far from number three. A strong outside linebacker would also help against the run, so someone who can play three downs would be a massive asset to Buffalo if they could find one at the top of the second round.
3, QB/WR- I have decided to have either a QB or a WR here as I don’t think Buffalo need both. If they decide to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick this year, as he showed some good ability mid-season 2010, they need to give him another weapon to go alogside Steve Johnson and Lee Evans. If they decide not to keep Fitzpatrick, then they don’t need another WR, as Johnson and Evans are both capable, but they do need to pick up a quarterback early. I feel that their needs on the defensive line and at outside linebacker must be addressed with their first two picks, so a receiver is probably the best option to go with at this point, with possibly a quarterback in the late rounds to sit on the bench for a while.
4, CB- the Bills pass defense was third in yards per game in 2010. So why do they need another CB? Well, considering their abysmal run defense, Buffalo did not face the pass too often on defense. When they did, they ranked 16th in terms of yards per attempt, 26th in interceptions and 13th in passing first downs. With the top two picks both helping to build up the defense against the run, the Bills’ secondary will be tested to a much greater degree than they were over the course of 2009 or 2010. A corner would be useful, not necessarily as a starter, but as an upgrade in the nickel packages, and someone to develop slowly.
5, TE- the Bills have nothing at tight end. Nothing at all. While they have not had anything at the position for a few years now, a good tight end can help any offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the strongest-armed quarterback in the league, and someone with good hands over the middle will help him out even more. If the Bills are to build around him and give him weapons, which I think they should, then a tight end would be very useful here. Clearly, they are not going to take a tight end high in the draft, as they have too many other concerns, but if a guy they like drops to them in the mid-low rounds, he would be useful for the offense going forward.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh Steelers:
1, OT- the Steelers’ offensive line has been poor for the last few years. They ranked 25th in sacks this year, partly down to Ben Roethlisberger’s style of moving around a lot in the pocket, but a top offensive tackle would help the Steelers in pass protection. While the running game is more solid, with players like Flozell Adams being much more suited to run blocking than pass blocking, the Steelers carried the ball the 8th most times in the NFL in 2010, but were only 18th in terms of yards per carry. An elite offensive tackle prospect would help Pittsburgh to extend the shelf-life of Big Ben, and would also help the running game become even better.
2, CB- Pittsburgh’s defense was the best in the NFL this year, and the best by quite some way. They led the league in sacks, led the league in yards per pass, yards per rush and rushing touchdowns. Against the pass, the Steelers were 12th in the league in yards per game, although they were thrown on more than all but three teams. Ike Taylor has had a good year, but he needs some help on the other side. Pick up a good young corner to slot into the defense and allow him to grow, which will help the Steelers going forward to dominate the defensive statistics for the next few years.
3, WR- Hines Ward has dropped off massively this season and could well be on his way out of Pittsburgh in the off-season or at sometime in the 2011 season. With Mike Wallace providing one of the best deep threats in the NFL and Emmanuel Sanders coming through nicely, Pittsburgh would like to add another young player to that group. The Steelers ranked 17th in passing first downs in 2010, and 21st in passing touchdowns. A receiver with good hands who can catch in traffic should help both of those stats, and should generate another element to frustrate opposing coaches. This guy doesn’t need to be elite, but if the Steelers identify a guy who they can plug in, a third round pick would be worth spending on him.
4, OG- with this team being mainly complete, the Steelers should be looking to bolster their offensive line as much as they can. The guards are not as much of a concern as the tackles, but another body in the interior will always be useful. Pittsburgh can generate greater pass protection and a more effective running game with greater talent on the offensive line, and a guard to go alongside a new tackle would not only help them now but it would also help them to remain dominant for a considerable period of time.
5, S- the Steelers have the greatest safety in the game in Troy Polumalu. But he suffered from injury last season, and is not getting any younger, despite having one of his best seasons for a while. However, when Polumalu is out, the Steelers’ defense struggles. So now is a great time to pick up a young, raw, talented safety and give Troy a new student. I’m thinking of a guy like Taylor Mays, although someone that gifted will be hard to find. Use a mid-round pick on a safety, have him learn from Polumalu for a few years and give the Steelers someone who can step in and play Polumalu’s role when Troy gets hurt,which he will.
Baltimore Ravens:
1, WR- this Ravens team is close to being elite for the next three years. The one piece missing from an otherwise excellent offense is a downfield receiver. Currently Donte Stallworth is the only receiver who can get downfield, and that is not a good situation. If the Ravens can unearth a speedy young receiver in the mold of DeSean Jackson in the first or second round, then the offense will become very difficult for teams to handle. This lack of a deep threat has harmed Baltimore’s running game and their short passing game, and fitting someone into that role in 2011 might be enough for the Ravens to jump the Steelers at the top of the AFC North.
2, CB- if deep threat is the hole on the Ravens’ offense, the biggest need on the defense is a corner. The strength of the run defense means Baltimore will face a lot of three receiver sets as teams look to go to the air, and Baltimore could do with an extra man to come in and boost their coverage. The secondary has done a very good job so far for Baltimore, considering how weak it was perceived to be at the start of the 2010 season, but another man to increase the competition for the starting spots is never a bad thing, and someone who can come in and help defend against multiple-receiver sets is always going to be valuable.
3, QB- with Marc Bulger likely to be courted by other teams this offseason, he may well be on his way out of Baltimore. This would leave them with just Joe Flacco on the roster. Every team should really be carrying three QBs, and the Ravens should be looking to draft one to back-up Flacco. With very few gaping holes on either side of the ball, Baltimore could go early on a QB, and if there are no other players they like, they could even go third round. This would give them an interesting decision to make if that QB was to develop well over 2011 and Joe Flacco was to continue not living up to his potential- especially if the Ravens once again did not make it to the Super Bowl.
4, S- Ed Reed retired at the end of the 2009 season only to come back in 2010 and get straight back into the swing of things- leading the league in picks after starting the season on the PUP list. Dawan Landry has cemented the spot opposite Reed, but the Ravens don’t really want to be left with Tom Zbikowski opposite him. A young free safety would be a great addition to the secondary if Reed decided to call it a day, and even if he doesn’t, there are few better players for a young man to learn under. If there is a safety there in rounds two or three, the Ravens should look to take him.
5, KR- this is the depth of problems in finding needs on this team. Offensive line is a possibility, but there are some very talented players there, and free agency is probably the better way of creating some competition for back-up spots. An explosive return man is always beneficial, and a specialist returner in the late rounds could really help the Ravens get a little bit of spark. With a solid offense and a very good defense, some explosive special teams play could be enough to get the Ravens over the hump and into the territory of the New England Patriots in terms of domination.
Cleveland Browns:
1, OLB- Some will have receiver or right tackle here, but I think the Browns’ biggest need is a pass rushing linebacker. They ranked 25th in sacks in 2010, were unable to get the defense off the field and placed 28th in terms of third down conversions. A Clay Matthews-like edge rusher would be a massive help in giving the offense more time and in allowing the defense to make some big plays and help themselves. The Browns also struggled against the run last year, ranking 27th in rushing yards per game and 21st in yards per carry. A dominant outside linebacker would be a massive benefit to the defense and, with the sixth pick in the first round, the Browns can go out and get that player.
2, WR- the Browns’ leading wide receiver in 2010 was Mohamed Massaquoi, and he only racked up 483 yards from 36 catches. If Cleveland are going to go forward with Colt McCoy, and all suggestions are that they will, they need to give him weapons. They have Peyton Hillis and Ben Watson, but they now need a true number one receiver. If AJ Green is on the board in the first round, they will have to take him, but if he is gone by the time they make their pick, the top of the second round is as good a place as any to pick up a receiver. They should be able to get first round talent at that stage without having to pay first round money.
3, DL- the Browns need help all over the defensive line. On paper, the defense look average, but on the field, the players showed their weaknesses. The defensive line is a big problem, especially with Shaun Rodgers suffering from injuries, and help anywhere the Browns can get it will be useful. A couple of rookies to bring into camp will be beneficial, even if they don’t crack the starting line-up. I don’t see the Browns looking to their line early, but I can see multiple picks in mid to late rounds.
4, OT- the Browns’ offensive line is pretty good. Anchored by Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach, it is strong in most positions. However, the Browns would like to add at least some competition at the right tackle slot. With Colt McCoy being so raw, the Browns will need to lean on the run once again this year, and upgrading the right tackle position is one way to ensure the effectiveness of that running game. This could be an early pick if the Browns see their needs in a slightly different way to me, or if the right players are not on the board, but there will be no-one there in round one and by the time they get to the second round they will be too busy deciding which receiver to pick.
5, RB- this one was a toss up between quarterback and running back, but I feel that the Browns would be best served by picking up a veteran QB like Chad Pennington or Marc Bulger for Colt McCoy to learn from. While Peyton Hillis proved to be a capable runner in 2010, he tailed off after around week 10, and the Browns struggled after that point. The recovery of Montario Hardesty should help Hillis remain fresh all season, but the addition of someone like Jacquizz Rodgers to change the pace of the offense would be a useful one. If he is available in the mid to late rounds and the Browns are happy with what they have, they should look to Quizz for a new dimension to the offense.
Cincinnati Bengals:
1, S- the Bengals have the best pair of corners in the NFL in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Joseph is keen to rejoin the Bengals and to sign a new deal, which will benefit this team, but even with these two the Bengals still ranked 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per pass and just 14th in interceptions. Much of that is down to not having a safety good enough to make a difference in the passing game. If this was 2010 the pick could be locked in. Eric Berry. However, the Bengals will wait until the second round before picking up a safety, and they must do so with the third pick in round two.
2, DT- the stats against the run do not look good for Cincinnati. They ranked 19 in rushing yards per game, 21st in yards per carry and 24th in rushing touchdowns conceded. Domata Peko is an above average defensive tackle, but the Bengals need a stud alongside him to anchor the defensive line. If Nick Fairley was to fall, Cincinnati would be delighted, but he will most likely be off the board by that point, so they will have to decide whether Marcel Darreus can both stop the run and get inside pressure on the quarterback. This looks most likely to be the pick with the Bengals’ first rounder.
3, DE- last season the Bengals finished 27th in the sack count. While rookie defensive end Carlos Dunlap impressed as the season went on, as did second year pro Michael Johnson, the Bengals could do with another body there which could mean they can lose Antoine Odom and Robert Geathers. If the Bengals are not satisfied with picking Darreus, and Fairley does not drop, a defensive end is the other likely option for them to look at with the fourth overall pick. An elite pass rusher could help this defense to get back to it’s 2009 form.
4, QB- Carson Palmer had an up and down 2010. He looked good at times and he looked terrible at times. The Bengals do not need an immediate replacement, but they do need a credible back-up, which Palmer’s brother Jordan is most certainly not. Palmer needs to feel a little pressure with a talented young rookie breathing down his neck in 2011. The Bengals also need to look beyond 2011, and hope that they can find someone who can make the decision not to renew Palmer’s contract in 2011 a little easier. If Palmer gets injured this year, the Bengals need someone who can step in and run a limited offense and hand the ball to a running back.
5, RB- Even if the Bengals resign Cedric Benson, they need a change of pace back. Benson and Bernard Scott are too similar, and Brian Leonard cannot take a large role in the offense. Someone like Dexter McCluster to bring some explosion to the offense will be a huge help. Even if the Bengals were not able to pick up a back who can be that explosive, they need someone who can at least catch some passes out of the backfield. Pick up a change of pace back and then the question of whether or not the bad running game was down to the running backs or to the offensive line, which would be the next area to rebuild.
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