AFC South:
Indianapolis Colts:
1, DT- The Colts cannot defend the run. They are better against the pass, 13th in passing yards per game, 10th in passing yards per attempt, 9th in passing touchdowns, but against the run they struggle. They rank 25th in rushing yards per game and 27th in yards per carry. The Colts are also 23rd in the league in sacks. With Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney at defensive end, backed up by Jerry Hughes, they should be top 5. If the Colts were really keen to solve these problems, they would be on the phone to Carolina, asking them just what they might want for the first overall pick. I would be tempted to offer their first and second round picks, as well as one of their receivers, maybe Pierre Garcon or even Reggie Wayne. That trade most likely won’t happen, so with the 22nd pick the Colts would like to find a huge run-stuffer to stick in the middle of their line and immediately sure up their defense against the run.
2, S- Bob Sanders is too injury prone for the Colts to rely on him. He is good, and makes a big difference to the team, but he is not on the field enough for the Colts to be able to see the benefits. Antoine Bethea is bordering on the elite on the other side, but a talented young safety would be a great plug-in for this team to take the reliance away from Sanders. The Colts would not necessarily need someone to fit into the passing game, but a bigger guy who can play close to the line and help out against the run would be hugely valuable for Indianapolis.
3, C- Indianapolis’ line is young. With the exception of Jeff Saturday, they have one player over 30, and that is Ryan Diem. If I was in charge of this organisation, I would be going out and looking for experienced tackles and guards rather than drafting them high. However, with Jeff Saturday at centre, now would be a good time to bring in a young guy with potential, as Saturday is one of the all time greats at the position. An ideal pick here would be Mike Pouncey. He goes into the draft as a centre/guard, with many believing him unable to play centre in the pros. I would like to see the Colts bring him in in the first round, sit him behind Saturday and let him learn. If he can’t play at centre, he’ll slot in as an upgrade at guard. This would be a good pick if there was no defensive tackle available, but he should not be picked up if a run-stuffer was on the board.
4, RB- Joseph Addai is much like Bob Sanders. He is effective when he plays, but he doesn’t play enough to be relied upon. The Colts’ running game this year was not good. They ranked 29th in rushing yards per game, 27th in yards per carry, 19th in rushing 1st downs and 12th in rushing touchdowns. Whether or not that is due to the play of the offensive line, it is no secret that the Colts’ set of running backs is weak. Addai is the best of the bunch, but is hurt too much, Donald Brown has shown very little after he was the Colts’ first round pick in 2009, and going back to Dominic Rhodes showed just how desperate Indianapolis was. Another body in the competition will be useful, and a mid round pick could soon become a starter in this offense. He does not need to be a great runner, but he needs to be good enough to allow Peyton Manning to run play-action effectively.
5, QB- Peyton Manning is still great. He had a slight down season this year, but he still ranks at least at number two in the top QB stakes. I have him at number one. However, there is still a need for a new QB is Indianapolis. First off, Curtis Painter is the only back-up there, and he is not good enough to be in that position. Second off, while the Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league, that was on Peyton Manning, not the offensive line. If the line struggles in 2011 and Manning takes a bad hit, the Colts are finished. Thirdly, Manning threw an uncharacteristically high number of interceptions this year. If, and this is a massive if, Manning’s interceptions were a sign of the beginning of his decline, then having a second or third round quarterback in there who has learned from the best will be of great help in the transition to the next man up. Someone like Andy Dalton, if he was drop into the third round, would be a great pick up here.
Tennessee Titans:
1, QB- Tennessee want to rid themselves on Vince Young in the off season, even with Jeff Fisher having been dumped, it seems as though they will go into next season with Kerry Collins, Chris Simms and Rusty Smith. None of them is a starter, and none of them are likely to be a long-term option in Tennessee. With the 8th pick in the draft, it will be difficult to find value at the position, but a second or third round pick used on the right player could see Tennessee set up for the future. Their best option may be to start with Kerry Collins, or to bring in another veteran to start for a year or two, but a high to mid round quarterback is a must for the Titans if the pick gives the right value.
2, WR- Kenny Britt is legit. He will be a very good NFL receiver for the next few years. Opposite him is Nate Washington, a very low end number two, but the Titans need to acquire a slot receiver. The Titans ranked 25th in passing yards per game in 2010, but 17th in yards per pass and 17th in passing touchdowns. However, the team ranked 29th in first downs, and 28th in passing first downs, as well as 23rd in third down percentage. These stats show just how much the Titans missed a receiver with good hands who can go over the middle and catch balls in traffic. A player like this is a must for the Titans going into the off season, and the draft looks to be a good place to find one. Austin Pettis of Boise State is worth a look. If they bring in a young quarterback, they also have to give him weapons if he is to have success.
3, S- While the Titans struggle over the middle on offense, that is nothing compared to their struggles on defense. Their defense ranked 32nd in first downs, 31st in passing first downs and 29th in third down percentage. They are crying out for a safety who can cover slot receivers and tight ends, as they are the kind of players who quarterbacks often look to when they need to convert a mid-yardage situation. While another corner would make a good addition to the Titans’ roster, a safety takes precedence as Alterraun Verner and Cortland Finnegan can hold the fort at corner.
4, CB- However, Finnegan and Verner cannot play in the nickel position. The Titans have very little in terms of a third corner, and they need to add one to roster to play that position. There are talks of Prince Amukamara falling to number eight in the draft, but I feel that he will go at number seven if he is on the board. Cornerback is a position which will be very deep in the 2011 draft, so the Titans can sit and wait, picking one up in the second or third round, if not later. All of this may be irrelevant if Tennessee get themselves into the Nnadmi Asamugha debate, but the money they would have to spend to do so would not make the move worthwhile.
5, TE- Bo Scaife is a low-end starter in the NFL. The Titans also have Jared Cook, a young first year player who they drafted in the third round last year. They will have high hopes for Cook, but they could do with adding another tight end to the mix. This is for similar reasons to the need for a slot receiver, as the tight end is usually an important short-yardage target. If the Titans are to have a new QB in place next year or for the future, they will need to surround him with talented players. Another tight end to go with Cook and Scaife cannot hurt. I would be looking at someone like Luke Stocker, a mid round talent out of Tennessee, or Jordan Cameron, a later round guy who needs some work.
Houston Texans:
1, CB- the Texans pass defense is one of the worst the NFL has ever seen. They gave up the most yards, the second highest yards per pass, most touchdowns and third most passing first downs in the league in 2010. Houston need a pair of corners who are an upgrade over what they have now, and who will take pressure away from 2010 first round pick Kareem Jackson. Jackson did not have a good year, but his style didn’t fit the Texans’ system, and new defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips may be able to get greater use out of him. However if a corner is on the board at number 11 who is not too much of a reach, he should come off the board right there. This is the biggest need by a mile, and it must be addressed if Houston are to move forward.
2, CB- Yeah, the Texans need a pair of corners. One in the first round, and one in the mid rounds. With the depth of talent available in this draft, they can find two starters in the first four rounds.
3, NT- Wade Phillips runs the 3-4. Houston have been a 4-3 team for a long time, and have built up a decent front seven in that system. If Phillips decides to rip up the floorboards and lay down new carpet, it will take a long time, and much of this draft should be used for building the future of the 3-4 in Houston. A nose tackle is not the most important position in the 3-4, but it is possibly the hardest to find. A high round nose tackle will be a great asset for this team to have in the next ten years, even if he cannot make a great impact right away.
4, DE- Again a part of the 3-4, Houston need to build up the defensive line before they deal with the rest. Stopping the run is vital, more so than organising the linebackers, so a defensive end is a big priority. Mario Williams is a top end in a 4-3, but where he fits into the new system is still a mystery. If he plays with his hand down, he will need a lot of help from the other side as he grows into the position. Another potential use of a top round pick is a defensive end, and the Texans may have to look into some trades to gain extra second and third round picks to build the future of their defense. Perhaps a trade down in the first round if one of the two top corners are not available, or even a big trade with Williams, who many teams would kill to have on their defensive line.
5, OLB- In a 3-4 scheme, the Texans do not have obvious outside guys. Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans should be good inside linebackers, but they do not have anyone who can be a top outside guy and bring the pass rush. The Texans will be taking a risk if they rely on him to generate the pass rush, as they would if they do not take an outside linebacker or two who can come in and help out in this area. The 3-4 needs big linebackers who can get to the quarterback, and, while Houston will not be taking a top round talent at the position, they may well take two players in the mid to lower rounds to try and find a future pass rusher in the mould of DeMarcus Ware. The problem here is that Houston could go to any of these needs with their first round pick, and all of them would be justified.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
1, CB- The Jags were vying with Houston for having the league’s worst secondary in 2010, and ended up giving up the highest number of passing yards. Their corners are poor, and they will be hoping to grab one of the top players at that position in the 2011 draft. Cornerback is deep this year, so the Jags should not have a problem finding one to fit into their secondary, whether that is in the first or second round, but they certainly need an upgrade, as well as a veteran presence from free agency if they can find one. The Jags defense has been statistically poor in most areas this season, but Head Coach Jack Del Rio has found a way to win. Upgrading the defense should give him a chance to push on and challenge the Colts at the top of the AFC South.
2, WR- While the Jags have a number of areas that they need to upgrade, I feel a talented young wide out is a necessary addition to the roster. Mike Sims-Walker is too inconsistent, and Mike Thomas is still not ready to lead the team. A receiver who is more able to go over the middle and who would be another redzone target to go alongside tight end Marcades Lewis would be a good addition. David Garrard improved last season, lower his interception numbers and proved a useful quarterback in the NFL. If he gets another top level weapon in the early rounds, he should continue to improve and to push Jacksonville towards the playoffs.
3, LB- the Jags’ big signing of the off-season in 2010 was former Oakland Raiders’ middle linebacker Kirk Morrison. Morrison was disappointing for the Jags, and the stats show a poor overall performance from the linebacking core. While the team ranked 11th in terms of rushing yards per game, they ranked 30th in yards per rush and 29th in rushing touchdowns, showing that their poor pass defense accounted for their relatively good showing in terms of total rushing yards allowed. The play of the interior defensive line was solid, but the linebacking has been disappointing, and an addition or two at any position of the three would help the team.
4, DE- the Jags ranked 30th in sacks this season, in spite of some better play from their interior linemen. This coming draft is deep at corner and defensive line, both positions where the Jags should be looking to use an early pick and possibly another as well. A pure pass rusher will be very useful to the Jags, and if they could find one like Carlos Dunlap for Cincinnati then they would be very pleased. If there is no corner worth the pick in the first round when the Jags are on the board, a defensive end will be on their minds, and a good pass rusher could well come off the board at 16.
5, S- another area of the Jags’ defense which would benefit from an upgrade is the safety position. They have some young players on the roster, but they don’t have any name which jumps out as a potential top level safety. A mid-round player could be plugged into the rotation, if not into the starting line-up with a good showing at camp, which would benefit the Jags by giving them another option and allowing them to stay healthy and fresh. If they can find a safety who is not necessarily a stand-out talent either against the run or in coverage, but is solid in both areas, that may be the best pick-up for the Jags.
AFC West:
Kansas City Chiefs:
1, WR- Kansas City have very few needs in this draft. For a team that had such a poor 2009, they are amazingly well-stocked. There are question marks over some of the players, but if each player continues at their 2010 level or improves, then the Chiefs have a chance to be a dominant team for a few years. A receiver may be their primary need, someone to play opposite Dwayne Bowe to give him more freedom to make plays. The Chiefs were 30th in passing yards per game last year, 22nd in passing yards per attempt and 21st in passing first downs. An early round young receiver will be a useful addition to a team with an already explosive offense.
2, DE- The Chiefs have developed a very talented front seven, with stars such as Tamba Hali emerging as one of the best in the NFL in 2010. However, they are light on the defensive front, with just three defensive ends on the roster, and could do with adding another to the rotation, and another to keep up the pressure on Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Kansas City do not have a glaring need to take a first round end, they have the chance to make a luxury pick or two if they were to fall into their laps, but a defensive end would be a good pick somewhere in the mid-early rounds.
3, QB- Matt Cassell had a great 2010, being voted to the Pro Bowl and showing that 2008 was no fluke in New England. He is the clear starter, and will not be under pressure next year from whoever the number two is. However, the number two is currently Brodie Croyle, who is not at all a good quarterback. Having a good back-up can mean the difference between first and last in the division, and Croyle would certainly not lead the Chiefs to first if Cassell was to go down. A mid round quarterback would be a good addition for the Chiefs to work on and develop into a new backup for Cassell. If any of the candidates for the second round such as Stanzi or Dalton fall into the third for Kansas City, they should consider them, or even if Jake Locker was to fall to them in the second he could be an ideal pick.
4, OLB- Tamba Hali was a beast in 2010, and the Chiefs ranked a healthy tenth in the league in sacks. Hali was a massive part in that, and the Chiefs will want to improve on that by bringing in another linebacker to give the defenses some worries. If teams can double team Hali and not have someone on the other side to worry about, the sack production from this defense will go down, but if a young pass rushing linebacker can come in, Hali should stay free to wreak havoc. This could be the way Kansas City go in the first round depending on which players are on the board.
5, NT- this one was tough, as the Chiefs are very well stocked in most areas. Luxury picks could be made in this draft to help any area, but a nose tackle would make a good addition, if there is one on the board that the Chiefs feel could be an upgrade. The Chiefs rush defense was a little above average in 2010, but improvements are always welcome in the NFL, so a big, bulky young nose tackle could help out in short yardage situations and on the goal line. Otherwise, the Chiefs could look at any position.
San Diego Chargers:
1, OT: Finding the top need for this team is difficult. They have talent all across the board, and that stats they put up this year were phenomenal. However, they did not make the playoffs. Possibly the biggest reason for that was a somewhat faltering running game. The Chargers finished 15th in the league in rushing yards per game and rushing first downs, although they used Mike Tolbert to get them up to 4th in terms of rushing touchdowns. Ryan Matthews was banged up last year, but he shouldd be back to full health next year, and an elite offensive tackle will be giving him the chance to be super effective. With Marcus McNeill at left tackle, the Chargers could create a great pair of tackles, which would help them to protect Phillip Rivers as well, as they ranked 19th in sacks allowed in 2010.
2, WR- Phillip Rivers lit up the NFL in 2010 with very few receiving weapons, as Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson were both in and out of the line-up. Assuming that Jackson will be leaving to pick up a big cheque somewhere else this offseason, the Chargers need to pick up a receiver. Even if Jackson stays, Malcolm Floyd has not shown great durability, and a young, raw receiver would be a good addition to this San Diego offense. A couple of additions to the offensive line, a new receiver and a rejuvenated running game will make this offense into one which defensive co-ordinators will be tearing their hair out over.
3, CB- the Chargers gave up the fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest yards per pass, the fifth fewest passing touchdowns and the third fewest passing first downs in 2010. They only have four corners on the roster however, and could do with another body to push the group even further. They are sure to be challenged further in 2011 as they face superior competition to the relatively easy schedule they somehow messed up in 2010. Another corner would be a useful piece to add to the puzzle and it should help the Chargers with their attempt to regain the NFC West title.
4, RB- Ryan Matthews struggled with health through 2010, and Darren Sproules in unlikely to get the money he will want in San Diego. Mike Tolbert did a good job for the Chargers in 2010, but they will want to find a new version of Darren Sproules to be the change of pace back and allow Tolbert to return to the more familiar role of full back. A young back such as Jacquizz Rodgers would also be able to help out in the return game, and be able to take some of the pressure off Matthews.
5, QB- Phillip Rivers is one of the best in the NFL, and had a great 2010. Billy Volek is one of the league’s better backups, but he is now 34 years old, and may not be too keen on spending the rest of his career with a headset on. Drafting a young guy like Greg MacElroy would be a great option, as he is a very intelligent player who is likely to spend his career as a backup. He could come in and develop under one of the best quarterback developers in the NFL, and he would make a good backup when Volek decides to call it a day.
Oakland Raiders:
1, CB- The Raiders are going to lose one of the best corners in the league in Nnamdi Asamugha in this off season. With him going, the Raiders lose the cornerstone of their defense. Their defense gave up the second lowest passing yards per game in 2010, and the fewest passing first downs, as teams were scared to challenge Asamugha. The Raiders are unlikely to find a corner who can take a receiver out of the game like Asamugha can, but an early-round corner would be a must as the Raiders attempt to cover for the loss of their star player.
2, RT- Langston Walker is getting older, and is declining, but is worth keeping on the roster as he could play a number of positions, but he should not be a starting right tackle in the NFL at this stage of his career. Jared Veldheer is learning on the job at left tackle, so the Raiders do not need to add a player there, but a young right tackle would give them the foundations of a line which could see some consistency for a few years. The second round may be a good point to look for a right tackle, or a trade into the late second round could see the Raiders acquire a player like Castonzo or Carimi.
3, OLB- The Raiders run defense was not ideal in 2010. They ranked 29th in rushing yards per game, 23rd in yards per rush and 20th in rushing touchdowns. The defensive line needs some help, but Rolando McClain, the Raiders’ high profile first rounder, needs some better players around him. An addition or two on the outside will help the Raiders against run, and they should be able to get one in the later rounds, as they will not be looking for an immediate upgrade at pass rush, ranking joint second in the league in sacks in 2010.
4, OG- To go with their shiny new right tackle, the Raiders should pick up a guard. Partly because Cooper Carlisle in 33 years old, and on the decline, and also because they have Jared Veldheer, a new right tackle, and Bruce Campbell waiting in the wings. Having such a young offensive line will be a hinderance for a year or two, but it will be a great benefit in the long term, and should give the Raiders a chance to develop their running game and to make Darren McFadden one of the most effective backs in the league for the next few years.
5, TE- The Raiders had high hopes for Zach Miller in 2010, but his injury made him a non-factor for much of the season. Now he could become a free agent at the end of the year, and losing him would be a big loss for Oakland. If they do lose him then a tight end becomes a bigger need, but even if they do not tight end is a need for this team, as they need someone who can move the chains over the middle of the field. With Jacoby Ford, Darius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy, the Raiders have a potentially explosive receiving core, if they can all get up to speed, and a tight end to play with, or to replace, Zach Miller would give whoever plays under centre for Oakland the weapons to have a successful year.
Denver Broncos:
1, CB- Picking a top need for the Broncos is difficult, as they have needs all over their defense, but corner looks to be their biggest. Part of that is the fact that Perrish Cox could well be in jail soon, and Champ Bailey could well be on a different roster soon after the CBA is signed. Even if Bailey and Cox stay, Bailey is getting up in years, and the Broncos pass defense was terrible in 2010. They ranked 25th in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in yards per pass, 24th in passing touchdowns and 30th in picks. Right there for them at the top of the draft, if they choose to look that way, is Patrick Peterson, the best prospect at corner for the last few years. However, the draft is deep for corners, and many Denver fans have been calling for Peterson to be passed on and for the Broncos to take elite talent to fill another need.
2, DT- With the Broncos switching to a 4-3 system in 2011, they need to rebuild an entire front seven. The lineman are the biggest concerns however, and a defensive tackle just edge out the ends as the next biggest need. The Broncos gave up the 2nd highest rushing yards in the NFL last year, as well as the second most rushing first downs, and the highest number of rushing touchdowns. The Broncos need a defensive tackle who can play the run- especially when they get down to the goal line. If a team cannot defend the run, it cannot do anything on defense, and if the Carolina Panthers were to pass on Nick Fairely, he would be a perfect fit for the Broncos here.
3, DE- If the Panthers were to take Fairley, the Broncos decision should be between Patrick Peterson and Da’Quan Bowers. While I have corner as the bigger need, I would take Bowers. In addition to the terrible run defense, the Broncos, admittedly without Elvis Dumervil, ranked deal last in the NFL in sack numbers. They had just 23 sacks, and were led by inside linebacker DJ Williams. They need a pass rusher from the outside, and in a 4-3, Dumervil will not be that player. Bowers would be a perfect pick if he was on the board for Denver, as using a top pick on a pass rusher usually gives better value than a corner, especially when a corner should be on the board for the Broncos in the second round, and they could even look for another a little lower as well.
4, TE- While the Broncos have not used the tight end in recent years, and their 2010 offense was not hugely harmed by this, a good pass catcher at the position can benefit any offense. John Fox is also not a big fan of the pass catching tight end, as shown by his string of tight ends in Carolina. Again, however, a tight end who can go over the middle and make tough catches is very valuable. Just ask Bill Belichick. The Broncos should not be looking for a guy too high in the draft as they have such huge needs on their defense, but if a pass catcher was to fall to them in the mid to late rounds, they should pull the trigger.
5, S- renaldo Hill is 32 and Brian Dawkins is 37. Both are still adequate starting safeties, but the Broncos need young talent at the position, and should be in a position to find some in the mid rounds of the 2011 Draft. They do have some younger players at the position, but adding another will not hurt, and anything that the Broncos can do to rebuild this defense will be of benefit. John Fox was brought in to do just that, and the draft will likely be his first chance to do so. Therefore expect the Broncos to go heavy on defensive talent, much like Miami did last year, as the offense is good enough to let go for one more year.
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