NFC South:
Atlanta Falcons:
1, S- Atlanta are solid in all areas, with a few needs that Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith should have no problem dealing with in the 2011 NFL Draft. Safety may not be the most obvious need, but it is their biggest. The Falcons were a team which were not the greatest statistically, relying instead on good coaching and being efficient when it mattered. However, they will want to improve on some stats, in particular their third down percentage and passing first downs given up on defense. Atlanta ranked 15th in passing first downs and 22nd in third down conversions, which a safety who can run with slot receivers and tight ends would help. At the bottom of the first round they could target Rahim Moore out of UCLA, who seems to be a low first round prospect, or they could go after someone with their second round pick.
2, DE- John Abraham had a very good year in 2010, picking up 13 sacks for the Falcons. He was a vital player in their good season, but needs better help opposite him on the defensive line. Kroy Biermann is not a bad player, but three sacks is not good enough for a 4-3 defensive end on a Super Bowl contending team. This draft is deep at defensive end, and there may be ends who drop a little further than expected as teams look for value in the lower rounds, meaning the Falcons may be able to use their first rounder on someone like Ryan Kerrigan, although this is unlikely. With the depth of defensive ends in this draft, Falcons fans should not worry if they go to bed on Thursday night without having picked one up.
3, DT- Jonathan Babineaux is possibly the single most underrated player in the NFL today. If it isn’t him, he is a close second. Babineaux is a very good defensive tackle, but the Falcons would like to add a big run-stuffer to play alongside him. Babineaux has shown plenty of ability to get into the opposition’s backfield throughout 2010, and his 4 sacks were a good return for a 4-3 defensive tackle. If the Falcons can find a big run-stuffer to play alongside him, it will help their defense hugely, partly by allowing to Bebineaux greater freedom to attempt to pressure the quarterback, and partly by an improvement in the run defense. This could be another potential use of their first round pick, although this is less likely unless a player drops down the board.
4, WR- There is a case to be made for this being the Falcons’ biggest need. The team are currently ranking 28th in yards per pass, partly because they have no legitimate deep threat, and Roddy White is having to do almost all of the outside work. Tony Gonzalez no longer has the speed to get deep, and Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas do not have the ability. Eric Weems could develop, as he is an electric returner, but a speedy receiver like Titus Young would be a perfect fit for Atlanta. Young is likely to go at the top or in the middle of the second, so a move from Idaho to Georgia is unlikely, but someone with 4.3 speed would be a useful weapon for Matt Ryan to have.
5, TE- As already mentioned, Tony Gonzalez no longer has the speed to be an elite weapon in the NFL. His Hall of Fame career is almost unparalleled by any NFL tight end, and he can still get the job done for the Falcons in the short passing game and especially in the redzone, but the Falcons would like to be able to add a young player with talent who can be molded by the coaching staff and by Gonzalez himself into a replacement in one or two years time. Jordan Cameron, who’s route to the draft has mirrored that of Antonio Gates (who also started out as a basketball star), and would be the ideal pick for the Falcons. In 2012 he could be what Jimmy Graham is going to be for the Saints in 2011.
New Orleans Saints:
1, DT- The Saints have a lot of talent all over the roster, but the front seven needs some work. With the explosiveness or their offense and the ability of their secondary, the Saints need to add to their run defense and they could be back to the Super Bowl sooner rather than later. The Saints ranked 16th in rushing yards per game, 17th in rushing first downs, 17th in yards per rush and 18th in rushing touchdowns, by no means terrible, but one of the rare aspects of their play which was not right at the top of the stat sheets. A run stuffer at defensive tackle is necessary for the Saints, and could be their first round pick. There should be one or two talented defensive tackles on the board when they pick, and they could look to one straight away in the first round.
2, DE- At end, the Saints are anchored by Will Smith. Smith is a talented player, who only managed 5.5 sacks in 2010. Opposite Smith the Saints have noone of note, which is one reason why they only ranked 18th in sacks, in spite of their hugely talented secondary. A defensive end plucked from this deep class would be useful for the Saints, and is the only other place they should be looking in the first round. Depending on who is on the board, the Saints should be making the judgement between which area of the defensive line they choose to tackle first, but they need to look at both tackle and end early in the draft, and possibly later as well.
3, OLB- Jonathan Vilma is a very good middle linebacker, especially when it comes to leading his defense, but he needs an upgrade outside of him. The Saints need to find a linebacker who can play the outside and help them to stop the run, and someone who can get into the backfield could be of use as well. There will not be a 4-3 outside linebacker worthy of their first round pick, but it will be someone to look in the second and third rounds, and the Saints need to come away from the second day of the draft with two of their top three needs tackled. They do not necessarily need to add a player who will come in and start straight away, as Shaun Weatherspoon did in Atlanta, but they need one who can make an impact from day one, and who can develop into a good starter quickly.
4, RB- I wanted to put a running back at five, if at all on this list, as I am not one of those people who think the Saints need a running back hugely. Pierre Thomas will be back next year, and Chris Ivory looked talented when he was healthy in 2010. Between them they could provide a dynamic duo in the running game, or in the trainer’s room, for the Saints in 2011. Not to forget Reggie Bush, if he remains in New Orleans. Adding another back in the late rounds might be useful for the Saints, especially a bigger-bodied back who can pound the ball into the endzone. Some people will have the Saints going with a back as high as the second round, but that does not sit well with the Saints pass-heavy system, and such a pick would be a waste.
5, OT- The Saints are fine in most areas, and offensive tackle is one such area. Bushrod and Stinchcomb are both solid tackles, so the Saints do not need to look for a tackle who can come in and start. However, tackles are rarely bad picks, and they can be kept on the roster and given time to develop without the pressure ascribed to some players. This is one area which the Saints may look to in the later rounds, as they do not need to do so in the early or mid rounds. They could look at other areas, or pick up other defensive linemen or linebackers, but if they want to look elsewhere, tackle is probably a better pick than most.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
1, DE- As everyone seems to, I have an outside pass rusher as the Buccaneers’ top need for the 2011 season. They have some dynamic young talent all across their team, but defensive end is one area of weakness. They must add a defensive end with top tier potential in this draft, and need to look to do so in the first round. That may mean a trade, but if it does then so be it, as the Buccs need to address this. They ranked 30th in sacks in 2010, and, while their pass defense was good, need to up that to ensure they remain a playoff contender in 2011. A defensive end who can get into to backfield and also play the run would be the best thing the Buccaneers could do for themselves in this draft.
2, S- This is the only other way the Buccs could go in the first round, and they could be another candidate for selecting Rahim Moore. The Buccs’ safeties are not the league’s best, and their ranking of 31st in 3rd down percentage sums that up perfectly. Moore would be a player who could come in and start for the Buccs straight away, and instantly upgrade their already talented secondary. Lining Moore up next to Aquib Talib would give the Buccaneers a secondary to salivate over for the future.
3, MLB- It seems increasingly likely that middle linebacker Barrett Ruud will be leaving Tampa Bay this offseason. Quite why is a mystery, as he ranks among the best in the NFL, and will take a lot of replacing. If the Buccs do have to replace him, they will have to look to do it through the draft, as they have no idea what kind of free agency will be happening in the NFL. A second or third round pick should be used on a middle linebacker, as the Buccs need one who can come in and start early should Ruud leave. This pick could be a vital one for the Buccs, and it could possibly make or break their season in 2011.
4, OLB- While the Buccs may have greater holes than this, if they are to lose Ruud, they will need more than just one player to replace him. A new middle linebacker will need to be surrounded with talent, and an outside linebacker who can make some kind of impact in 2011 would be a useful weapon to have. It would mean the Buccs defense is inexperienced, so character is important in this pick, and their other linebacker they look for, but they can have proven that they can find the talent in young players and utilise it, sp there is no reason to say they could not do so at this position.
5, G- The Buccs would probably like to pick up a tight end who is not held together by sticky tape and chewing gum, but a guard would have a greater impact on this team. The offensive line did a good job for the Buccs last year, although some of their good stats in terms of sacks come down to their mobile quarterback, but considering the injuries along the line the Buccs’ offensive line deserves credit. They could always go with an upgrade at guard as they attempt to utilise the talent of LaGarrette Blount in the running game. A big, strong run-blocking guard would be nice for Tampa Bay, but not a massive priority.
Carolina Panthers:
1, QB- Sadly for the Panthers, quarterback is their biggest need. In a draft where the best college quarterback in America decided he didn’t want to make the long trip across the country to Charlotte, the Panthers could really have used him. Instead they face the tough choice of whether or not there is a quarterback worthy of the first overall pick, and if so, whether that quarterback is Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton. I don’t see either of them worth that pick, and I don’t see either of them able to come in and start straight away. Without a second round pick, the Panthers’ dilemma is made even harder. They cannot wait and pick a third round quarterback to thrust into the starting spot, and the CBA situation is not clear, so they can not be sure of picking up a veteran player. Whatever happens, they cannot go into 2011 with Jimmy Clausen under centre, so they need to make a decision, and they need to draft a quarterback at some point.
2, WR- This Panthers offense ranked worst in the league in seven categories. It is fair to say that it ranks among the worst offenses the NFL has seen in the last thirty years. Apart from some poor play at quarterback, the Panthers had nothing at receiver, and none of their rookies made an impact. Even long-time Panther Steve Smith could do little to help out Clausen. The Panthers need to draft a receiver who they know can make an impact. This is why they will be looking at AJ Green with the first pick, and weighing up the value of drafting a receiver against the value of drafting a quarterback or defensive lineman. Green is unlikely to be their pick, but he would be a good one if they made it.
3, DT- The Panthers have a lot of needs, mostly on offense, but defensive tackle is the weak spot of their defense. It just so happens that there is a rather talented defensive tackle available with the first pick of the draft, and he should be the favorite to be Carolina-bound. The Panthers gave up the 10th most rushing yards per game last season, but also the fourth most rushing 1st downs and second most rushing touchdowns. They need a defensive tackle in the line who can play the run well. This is a reason why they may not want to draft Nick Fairley. Fairley is a penetrator more than a run defender, although he can do both, and may not be the defensive tackle that the Panthers truly need.
4, TE- Carolina have not used their tight end for a long time. However, new Head Coach Ron Riveira is coming from San Diego, where Antonio Gates was one of their biggest contributors. While he was not in control of the offense, he may well be looking to find a tight end who can at least make some contribution in the passing game. The Panthers are not in a position where they can afford to take a shot at a top tight end like Kyle Rudolph, but they should be looking to pick one up in the lower-mid rounds. Anything to help their quarterback, whoever he may be, to bed into the offense and help to drag Carolina out of the position it has found itself in.
5, SS- Assuming the Panthers are able to resign Charlie Johnson, they will not need to tackle the defensive end position too high in the draft. If that is the case, a safety takes the final spot here over a defensive end or some offensive line help. The Panthers played the pass quite well last season, but they struggled against the run so could do with a strong safety who can play in the box and help out on running downs. An undersized linebacker with good coverage skills could be a useful pick here, giving Ron Riveira some time to work with him and turn him into a strong safety, or just a late round strong safety if one of the required quality is on the board.
NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks:
1, G- This division can be summed up by the thought that Seattle won it, but did not rank higher than 12th in any important statistical category. The Seahawks struggled with everything in 2010, but Pete Carroll was able to help them reach seven wins and a division title. Losing to St. Louis in week 17 may have been more useful as they would have received higher draft picks, but need have to work with what they have. I have guard here for the run game. Seattle struggled to get any production out of Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett in 2010, despite their talents, and they need to sure up the offensive line for that reason. Adding a talent like Steven Wisniewski in the first round would be ideal for this team. It may not be the glamorous pick that fans like to see, but it would help them continue growing into a team challenging for division titles.
2, CB- The defense has very few good points. While Marcus Trufant is one of them, there is next to nothing opposite him, and Seattle’s pass defense was poor though 2010. They ranked 27th in passing yards per game, 28th in passing first downs, 24th in yards per pass and 29th in passing touchdowns. This team needs an addition at corner. With the draft being so deep here, they should not have a problem finding a high round corner who can come in an upgrade the secondary quickly, even if they do not look to this position in the first round, which they should not do unless Wisniewski or Pouncey are both off the board. The second or third round should see a corner worthy of being drafted by Seattle.
3, QB- Last offseason, the Seahawks invested considerable amounts of money in the largely unknown Charlie Whitehurst, for reasons which have not become clear. Whitehurst got into a few games this year, and showed very little. This will have worried Coach Carroll enough to make him think his team need to draft a new developmental player. This could be where they go in the second round, as there are a lot of quarterbacks in this draft who need to sit behind an experiences player and learn for a year or two. Jake Locker looks to be a perfect fit for the Seahawks, but he would have to be drafted with the twenty-fifth overall pick, and I do not consider that great value for the Hawks. A Ricky Stanzi or Andy Dalton may make for a better option in the second round, or, if Carroll is feeling adventurous, Ryan Mallett.
4, SS- Currently starting for the Seahawks at strong safety is Lawyer Milloy. Yes, the same Lawyer Milloy from the Patriot days of way back when. He is too old and slow to be starting in the NFL, as shown when he was outrun by Bears’ tight end Greg Olsen in the playoffs. Olsen is hardly the quickest player in the NFL, and he was able to beat Milloy with ease, something else which will have worried Carroll. With Earl Thomas already in the secondary and the high chance of plugging in a high pick at corner, adding a strong safety would give the Seahawks young talent across the board, and the foundations of a group which could start for the next few years. While they will not be looking to the position early, if a strong safety should drop, Seattle could do worse than to pick one up.
5, DT- Teams can not often go wrong by adding to their defensive lines. Seattle have needs at both positions on the line, as well as at receiver and tight end, but they have Golden Tate as their young, talented receiver, and John Carlson can hold the fort at tight end for now. The run defense for the Seahawks was okay, not good, but better than their pass defense. However, adding a young talent into the interior of the defensive line will do no harm to Seattle’s chances of repeating as division champions. They will not look to defensive tackle early, but they may like to later in the draft, as things get into day three.
St. Louis Rams-
1, RB- Not a receiver. No, I for one have the Rams with an even bigger need than receiver here. I can see Steven Jackson falling off the map soon. Looking at the number of touches he has had in the last five years will show anyone that he has been worked and worked and worked some more, and he is getting brittle. The Rams need to find a running back who can split carries with him in 2011 and be prepared to be the number one back when Jackson’s body gives out, which could happen at any time. Julio Jones just had a very good combine, and some are even talking about him rivaling AJ Green at the top of the receivers’ lists. I am not going mad, but I think he is off the board by the time the Rams pick. In which case, there is a strong case to be made for Mark Ingram to come off the board here, especially if there is no linebacker available. While Josh McDaniels may not be famed for his use of running backs, the Rams will not totally tear up their play sheet as they need a good running game to keep pressure off Sam Bradford. Ingram should be strongly considered by St. Louis, although there is a very small chance he ends up in Missouri.
2, WR- Here it is, the one that everyone is talking about. Yes, they are correct. St. Louis need a big time receiver for Sam Bradford to keep growing. The Rams ranked 31st in yards per pass in 2010, due to the fact that Bradford had no receiver who seemed able to catch balls much further than fifteen yards down the field. Julio Jones would be the ideal first round pick for St. Louis, but after his combine, they have to fear that he might come off the board at number 10, or even number 12 if the Vikings feel unable to get a deal done with Sidney Rice. Either way, they Rams must find a receiver to play alongside Donnie Avery and Danny Amendola, as Sam Bradford needs to be surrounded with talent to show off his true ability.
3, LB- James Laurinitis is developing into a top tier linebacker in the NFL. However, the Rams have very little alongside him, and they should look to address that issue in this draft. While the run defense ranked 22nd in yards per rush this year, they ranked fourth in rushing touchdowns, but such a gap generally means they will concede more often against the run next year if they do not add to their defense. A high to mid round linebacker will enable them to do just that, and should ensure their run defense continues to improve. Playing a 4-3, they do not have the added need of finding a pass rushing linebacker, which means they do not need to target one in the first round, but one by the end of the second day would be the ideal situation.
4, G- The Rams’ offensive line improved no end this season, and Rodger Saffold proved to be a great pick in the second round for St. Louis. They were able to plug him in at left tackle and let him do his job, however, the line could still be improved. The tackles are fine, but the guards are not so fine, and could do with another body to challenge for a starting spot in camp, whenever that may be. Considering St. Louis have one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, albeit one in decline, their rushing statistics this year were poor, as they ranked second to last in the NFL in yards per rush, posting a number under 4 yards per run. A big run-blocker would help them here, as would a new running back, but if they can pick up a guard in the mid rounds, they should help to push forward their rushing attack and therefore their offense.
5, CB- In this cornerback-deep draft, the Rams would benefit by taking advantage and picking one of them up. Their defense was okay last year, although their run defense was largely better than their pass defense, and they did not give up huge numbers of touchdowns. In fact, the Rams rarely gave up long yardage on passes. Some of that goes to the presence of Oshimogo Atogwe at safety, but their corners deserve credit too. However, none of those corners are top tier players, and none are likely to ever find themselves in that top tier. Adding a mid round corner would benefit the Rams in the long-term, if not in the short-term, although some competition for spots is always a good thing.
San Francisco 49ers:
1, CB- The 49ers have a number of needs, many of which seem to be of around equal value. Corner is the one which sticks out a little more than others, partly due to the strength of the run defense compared to the pass defense. San Francisco were very good at stopping the run in 2010 (6th in rushing yards per game, 2nd in yards per rush), but conceded too much against the pass (22nd in passing yards per game, 23rd in yards per pass). The addition of a top level corner with elite potential would help to rectify the imbalance and would greatly strengthen a defense with a lot of talent. Patrick Peterson would be ideal first round pick for the 49ers, although if he is off the board by the time they pick, as he most likely will be, Prince Amukamara will be a good consolation.
2, S- Again, the pass defense for this team needs suring up. The defense ranked 19th in third down percentage, which is okay, but with the strong run defense, it needs to be better. Taylor Mays is a physical freak at safety, but he is still developing the correct technique for the position, and has made a number of errors in 2010. Dashon Goldson too makes mistakes, and the 49ers would like to find a safety capable of coming in and upgrading their coverage skills at the position. They may have a chance to find one at the top of the second round, but could do with adding one somewhere along the line.
3, RB- While they already have Frank Gore and Anthony Dixon, the 49ers have a glaring need for a third down back who is more durable than Brian Westbrook. Gore is an elite back when healthy, but his health is becoming a concern for this team, and Dixon looks like he could be a good short yardage and goaline back. A small, fast scat back to improve their dreadful third down percentage (29th in the league) would be a massive addition. The nature of the position means they do not need to look for one of these too high in the draft, but they could do with finding one who they can use early, and in different ways, similar to the way the Chiefs have used Dexter McCluster.
4, QB- While I do not personally feel this team needs to draft a starter right away, a developmental quarterback would be a nice pick to make. Should the CBA issue be dealt with quickly, then the 49ers should look to acquire a veteran to come in and start, but if not, then they need to sit tight and resign Alex Smith to a deal, if he wants to stay. However, the depth of talent at quarterback on the roster is not ideal for a team which should be playoff contenders, and a mid round quarterback who can come in and learn his trade may give Coach Harbaugh options for the future.
5, OLB- Many people have this position higher, but looking at the 49ers roster, there is a lot of young players at this position, who are still growing and developing their skill set. Adding another will increase competition, and will help the cream rise to the top, possibly providing the 49ers with another piece to the puzzle. I feel that sorting the problems in their secondary are more important than the outside linebacker position, and would not be looking to one high in the draft, unless Von Miller makes it past the Cardinals. If he was to fall to 7 and Peterson was already gone, the 49ers would have a very difficult decision to make. Fortunately for them, I think he goes at number five, so they will not need to make it.
Arizona Cardinals:
1, OT- The Arizona Cardinals are unfortunate to play in the AFC West, because if they had played the 2010 season in any other division they would have been picking in the top two. Their team has holes in a number of places, and they need a lot of upgrades to avoid being in a similar position in 2011. While quarterback is the biggest need by far, a veteran is the way to go, as Jon Skelton is the developmental player there. The offensive tackle position is not in good shape in Arizona, and they need to add one. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, this is one of the rare years where there is no franchise left tackle who looks fit to go in the top five, so they will have to wait a round before they can acquire a tackle. This should not be too much of a problem, but they must ensure they do find one, as not doing so would see them totally unable to run the ball once again, and with a quarterback who takes a massive amount of hits once again.
2, OLB- While the Cardinals were able to put up decent sack numbers in 2010, their leading outside linebacker is Joey Porter, who does not have much left in the tank. The number five overall pick is an ideal spot for a young outside linebacker named Von Miller, who has spent recent weeks shooting up draft boards, as some even project him going at number three overall. He look a likely pick for the Cardinals, especially if the two major talents (Patrick Peterson and AJ Green) are not on the board. An improvement in the pass rush will assist the defense to improve in general, which it must do, and a young edge payer should be able to form a partnership with last year’s pick, Darryl Washington, for years to come.
3, DE- The Cardinals’ run defense was abysmal in 2010, one of the worst in the NFL. With Dan Williams having been drafted to play nose tackle last year, that is not a need, and Darnell Dockett is a good player to have on one end of the line. Calais Campbell is a good enough player in himself, but the Cardinals need to add some competition for starting spots, as the line was ineffective in 2010. If they can sure up their run defense, Arizona will instantly improve, as their secondary is above average. It will also help them to play better offense, as they will be on the field for longer and under less pressure when they do get hold of the ball. If they do not tackle this area then they will also find themselves languishing at the bottom of the NFL for 2011.
4, RB- Tim Hightower is okay, but Beanie Wells is injured all the time. Al the time means literally all the time. He had a number of games in 2010 when he would get on the field for one or two carries, and then be unable to continue. It was an issue throughout his college career too, and it is time for the Cardinals to add to their run game. With a boost to their offensive line, a new running back can come and split carries with Hightower and be somewhat effective, taking pressure away from the passing game. This does not necessarily need to be addressed early, although a player like Mikel Leshoure may be tempted at the top of the second round. I would hold off until the third at the earliest, as running back is not a hard position to fill in the draft, but could not blame Arizona for looking to find their next star at the position.
5, TE- This group is possibly the worst set of tight ends in the league. While they may not be in Arizona for their pass catching, judging by the performance of the running game in 2010, they were not there for blocking either. If a new quarterback is to have success in Arizona, he needs weapons. Larry Fitzgerald is as good as they come, and Steve Breaston and Early Ducet are promising, but a tight end would be a good addition. Should Kyle Rudolph fall into the third round, which is surely not going to happen, the Cardinals should jump on him. As that is unlikely, they should instead wait until the later rounds to find a tight end who can sit and develop, and become a threat in years to come.
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